- The Texans are a 7.5-point home favorite against the Titans.
- The Titans have lost each of their last 13 Sunday road games.
- My Texans vs. Titans prediction is for Tennessee to cover the spread.
On the heels of a Week 11 Monday Night Football contest, the Texans return home in Week 12 for a meeting with the Titans.
Houston thoroughly dominated Dallas in the Week 11 closer. The Texans never trailed on their way to a 34-10 victory, which included three Joe Mixon touchdowns.
Tennessee’s Week 11 result left much to be desired. By failing to cover against the Vikings as six-point dogs, the Titans moved to 2-8 SU and 1-8-1 ATS on the season.
Bet on Texans vs. Titans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 12 Odds: Texans vs. Titans
Texans vs. Titans Prediction
Based on C.J. Stroud’s flawed record as a favorite and the rest edge for Tennessee, my Texans vs. Titans prediction is the Titans Spread (+8.5, -110).
Betting on a Titans team with one cover in 10 tries is perhaps the grossest bet on the board this week. Yet, history suggests it’s a brilliant spot.
Divisional favorites at -9.5 or shorter off a road MNF game are 14-40-2 ATS since 2003. When they fall between -9.5 and -4: 4-26-1 ATS, including 1-14 in the last 15 qualifying games.
Slightly reassuring for the Titans, too, is that Stroud struggles as a market favorite.
Including his Week 11 cover against Dallas, the Ohio State product is still just 6-10 ATS as a market favorite in his young career.
This season alone, Stroud is 2-4 ATS as a market favorite, including failures against the Colts twice and the Jaguars at home.
That’s somewhat reassuring for bettors looking to fade Houston, especially when you factor in the quality of Tennessee’s defense.
Brian Callahan’s unit ranks 15th in defensive EPA per play and sixth in defensive success rate. They’re also 11th in defensive DVOA having placed the 13th-hardest set of opposing offenses.
While it’s difficult to quantify the exact quality of Houston’s offense amidst the injuries, there are still causes for concern.
The fact DeMeco Ryans’ offense managed only 23 points against a Colts defense 17th in DVOA isn’t anything reassuring. Plus, Indy has played the third-easiest set of opposing offenses.
If the Titans can render this contest a low-scoring one, it likely means they’re covering a big number.
History backs that up as divisional dogs priced at +8.5 or shorter with a total between 41.5 and 44.5 are 72% ATS since 2020.
Grab the Titans so long as they remain available at +7.5 or better on Sunday.
Betting Texans vs. Titans: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 49% | 73% | 55% | 33% |
| Texans | 51% | 27% | 45% | 67% |
