- The Titans are a 3.5-point home favorite against the Jaguars.
- The Jaguars have lost each of their last 15 road games following a home loss.
- My Titans vs. Jaguars prediction is for Jacksonville to cover the spread.
The Titans will go for their second win in three games on Sunday at home, with an AFC South matchup against the Jaguars.
On the heels of an outright win in Houston, the Titans followed it up with a 42-19 loss to the Commanders. It marked the worst game for Tennessee’s defense, which allowed 463 yards.
Jacksonville snuck in the backdoor against the Texans as home underdogs, covering the spread in a 23-20 loss. That loss marked the fifth straight loss for Doug Pederson’s squad.
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NFL Week 14 Odds: Titans vs. Jaguars
2024-12-08T18:00:00ZJaguars at Titans
Titans vs. Jaguars Prediction
Based on Will Levis’ flawed record as a favorite and the Jaguars’ strong passing game, my Titans vs. Jaguars prediction is the Jaguars Spread (+3.5, -110).
Lost in the Jaguars’ loss to the Texans is the fact their offense excelled behind Mac Jones.
Albeit with a major deficit to overcome, the Jaguars posted the third-best EPA per play in the second half amongst all Week 13 offenses, including fifth through the air.
The slight concern for the Jaguars is they were a boom-or-bust offense under Jones.
While they ranked third in EPA per play in that half, they sat 19th of 30th in total offensive success rate.
Jones’ passing efficiency will need to remain strong in Week 14 against a weak Titans pass defense.
Entering Week 14, Tennessee ranks 18th in dropback EPA per play and 17th in PFF’s coverage grades.
There’s also a major edge for Jacksonville on special teams. The Jags rank sixth in special teams DVOA whereas Tennessee ranks 32nd, per ftnfantasy.com.
But the crux of this play is fading Will Levis as a market favorite.
Levis is 1-3 ATS as a market favorite for his career. It’s also the first time Brian Callahan will play a game as a favorite with Levis. With Mason Rudolph, he’s 0-3 ATS.
History also likes this spot for the Jaguars.
Since 2003, road underdogs against previous underdogs are 57% ATS, assuming two factors:
- The closing spread falls between +2.5 and +6.5
- Both teams have 6-8 days between games
When those dogs fall between +2.5 and +3.5: 57.7% ATS, including 61% since the 2020 season.
Take the Jaguars so long as they stay at +3 or better in Week 14.
Betting Titans vs. Jaguars: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Titans vs. Jaguars public betting data and insights.
