- The Titans are a 3-point home favorite against the Patriots.
- The Patriots have lost eight straight games immediately following a win.
- My Titans vs. Patriots prediction is for New England to cover the spread.
Two AFC bottomfeeders meet on Sunday in Nashville as the Titans host the Patriots.
New England captured a surprise victory over the Jets in Week 8, their second win of the year. Despite losing Drake Maye, a late touchdown flipped the result in Foxborough.
Tennessee’s struggles continued in Week 8. Coming out of their bye week, the Titans have lost three straight games and are in the basement of the AFC South.
Bet on Titans vs. Patriots and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 9 Odds: Titans vs. Patriots
Titans vs. Patriots Prediction
Based on the Patriots’ improved metrics under Drake Maye and Tennessee’s struggles as a favorite, my Titans vs. Patriots prediction is the Patriots Spread (+3, -105).
History tells us New England’s win over the Jets in Week 8 was wholly surprising.
The Patriots became the first team ever to allow 20 or more points, amass under 250 yards, force zero turnovers…and win the game.
No matter how I feel about that result, history also tells us this is a good spot to back the dog.
Since 2003, road dogs between +2.5 and +3.5 are 45-18-2 ATS (71%), assuming three factors:
- The dog’s previous game margin falls between +3 and +16
- The dog’s previous game spread falls between +3 and +7.5
- The dog has between 7 and 14 days between games
When that game occurs outside the division, the dog improves to 27-9-2 ATS (75%).
Plus, there’s a clear edge for the Patriots in this matchup on special teams.
Per PFF, New England ranks third in special teams grades. Comparatively, the Titans are dead last in those rankings.
If New England exerts their advantage in that category, it should help bolster an offense that has improved under Maye.
Maye is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt and north of 11 yards per completion in two full starts.
In Jacoby Brissett’s first five starts, New England averaged 5.16 yards per pass attempt and 8.8 yards per completion.
Assuming Maye exits the NFL concussion protocol and starts, this line feels way too high on a Tennessee team that’s 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
Titans vs. Patriots: NFL Public Betting Trends
Check back on Friday for Titans vs. Patriots public betting data and insights.
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