Vikings vs Jaguars Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 10

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(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 06, 2024, 2:01 PM

The Vikings are -4.5 point favorites vs the Jaguars
Total (Over/Under): 45 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Minnesota Vikings (6-2-0) visit EverBank Stadium to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7-0) on Nov. 10. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Jacksonville, FL.

The Vikings are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Vikings vs. Jaguars Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

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Vikings vs. Jaguars Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Vikings	-4.5 -110	45 -110	-225
Jaguars	+4.5 -110	45 -120	+185

Vikings vs. Jaguars Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Vikings will win this game with 61.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Vikings vs Jaguars Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Vikings will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Vikings players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Vikings Player Prop Bets Today

Aaron Jones has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 47% ROI)
Sam Darnold has hit the Completions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 59% ROI)
Ty Chandler has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 92% ROI)
Sam Darnold has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.80 Units / 52% ROI)
Aaron Jones has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 49% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jaguars players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Jaguars Player Prop Best Bets Today

Travis Etienne has hit the Carries Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.55 Units / 58% ROI)
Travis Etienne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 38% ROI)
Christian Kirk has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Brian Thomas Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
D’Ernest Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 54% ROI)

Vikings Best Bets:

The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+6.29 Units / 28% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+5.80 Units / 58% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 45% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.60 Units / 19% ROI)
The Minnesota Vikings have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 19 games (+4.45 Units / 21% ROI)

Jaguars Best Bets:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.60 Units / 35% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.45 Units / 22% ROI)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.80 Units / 29% ROI)

Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings art 6-2 (+3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI).

Vikings are 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 40.09% ROI
Vikings are 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
Vikings are 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / ROI

Jaguars Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Jaguars are 5-4 (+0.55 Units / 5.47% ROI).

Jaguars are 2-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -45.04% ROI
Jaguars are 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Jaguars are 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars

The Vikings are 6-1 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass this season — 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .603.

The Vikings are 1-9 (.100) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .367.

The Vikings were 1-8 (.111) when intercepting no passes last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

The Vikings were 3-7 (.300) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings

The Jaguars are 1-6 (.143) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.

The Jaguars are winless (0-6) whe trailing at the end of the frist half this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .282.

The Jaguars are 2-7 (.222) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Jaguars were 2-6 (.250) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards last season — 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .417.

Additional Matchup Notes for Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have a third down conversion rate of just 31.6% this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Vikings defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 32.4% this season — T-4th-best in NFL.

The Jaguars have run successful plays on just 36.6% of rush attempts with motion this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed successful plays on just 35.2% of rush attempts against motion this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Jaguars ran just 38.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Vikings allowed their opponents to runjust 37.5% of plays in their territory last week — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Vikings have run successful plays on 59.6% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Vikings had a third down conversion rate of 50.0% last week — T-5th-best in NFL. The Jaguars defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 52.9% last week — 4th-worst in NFL.

Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats

17 of the Vikings offense’s 21 (81%) TDs have come through the air this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Vikings have started 5 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 4th quarter this season — T-most in NFL.

26% of the Vikings offense’s first downs (79 of 299) came on the ground last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Vikings have been sacked on 17% of pass attempts (9/54) in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offense: Important Stats

The Jaguars ran no plays in their opponent’s territory in the 1st half in Week 9 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Jaguars have a third down conversion rate of 22% on motion plays this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Jaguars have turned the ball over on downs 4 times in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Jaguars have converted first downs on just 46 of 97 plays (47%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats

The Vikings defense allowed successful plays on 29% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Vikings defense has allowed 26 of 139 (19%) first downs on the ground this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Vikings defense has blitzed on 34% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Vikings defense has allowed successful plays on 13% of plays with a stacked front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense: Important Stats

The Jaguars defense has allowed a passer rating of 129.6 on motion plays (151 Pass Attempts) this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 95.9.

The Jaguars defense have allowed 0.20 epa per play with a base rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

The Jaguars defense has allowed 39 receptions for 20+ yards this season — 2nd-most in NFL.

The Jaguars defense has allowed 5 TDs on first drive of the game this season — most in NFL.

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