- The Lions are -3 point favorites vs the Vikings
- Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC | UNIV | TELX
The Minnesota Vikings (14-2-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (14-2-0) on Jan. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EST in Detroit, MI.
The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Vikings vs. Lions Over/Under is 56.5 total points for the game.
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Vikings vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Vikings | +3 -115 | 56.5 -110 | +130 |
| Lions | -3 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -155 |
Vikings vs. Lions Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Vikings vs Lions Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 62.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Vikings players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Vikings Player Prop Bets Today
- Sam Darnold has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Justin Jefferson has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Justin Jefferson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jalen Nailor has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jalen Nailor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today
- David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Interceptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+7.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 38% ROI)
Vikings Best Bets:
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 20 games (+15.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+7.20 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Vikings have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.74 Units / 21% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 21 games (+15.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.15 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+11.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.55 Units / 39% ROI)
Vikings Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Vikings art 10-4 (+5.6 Units / 32% ROI).
- Vikings are 14-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.35 Units / 43.87% ROI
- Vikings are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
- Vikings are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 11-4 (+6.6 Units / 37.5% ROI).
- Lions are 14-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.05 Units / 18.41% ROI
- Lions are 9-6 when betting the Over for +2.35 Units / 13.31% ROI
- Lions are 6-9 when betting the Under for -3.9 Units / -22.22% ROI
Minnesota Vikings: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Vikings are 6-1 (.857) when passing for 250 or more yards this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 250.4 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Vikings are 5-1 (.833) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .370.
The Vikings are undefeated (10-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .606.
The Vikings are 4-1 (.800) vs top 10 run offenses this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .338.
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Vikings
The Lions are 8-2 (.800) when passing for 250 or more yards this season — T-7th-best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 243.6 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Lions are 3-1 (.750) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .250.
The Lions are 15-6 (.714) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 7th-best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 238.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Lions are 2-1 (.667) when not forcing a turnover this season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .284.
Additional Matchup Notes for Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions have thrown for 4,487 passing yards in 16 games (280.4 YPG) this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 243.6 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Lions have run successful plays on just 45.2% of rush attempts against a base rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Vikings have allowed successful plays on just 37.0% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
Lions WRs have 442 receptions in 33 games (13.4 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 14.9 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Vikings ran successful plays on 62.8% of pass attempts last week — 4th-best in NFL. The Lions allowed successful plays on 67.5% of pass attempts last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Vikings have thrown for 4,213 passing yards in 16 games (263.3 YPG) this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 250.4 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Vikings have averaged 0.51 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 0.43 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL.
Minnesota Vikings Offense: Important Stats
The Vikings have run successful plays on 30% of rush attempts in the red zone since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
26% of the Vikings offense’s first downs (79 of 299) came on the ground last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 37%.
The Vikings have run 64% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
The Vikings have run successful plays on 24% of rush attempts against a light front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Lions have scored 7 TDs from their own territory this season — most in NFL.
The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Lions have averaged 0.18 epa per play against a base front this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
Minnesota Vikings Defense: Important Stats
The Vikings defense allowed successful plays on 29% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Vikings defense has blitzed on 29% of plays this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
The Vikings defense has allowed successful plays on 14% of rush attempts against play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
The Vikings defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 53%.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
The Lions defense has allowed successful plays on 75% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Lions defense have allowed 12.6 yards per play first read passes since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 8.0.
Offenses facing the Lions targeted WRs 68% of the time (386 Pass Attempts/569 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Lions defense have allowed 12.6 yards per play with a light front since Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.3.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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