- The Vikings are a 7-point home favorite against the Bears.
- The Bears have lost each of their last eight road games.
- My Vikings vs. Bears prediction focuses on the Bears Team Total.
The first game of a Week 15 MNF doubleheader features a divisional rematch as the Vikings host the Bears.
Minnesota moved to 11-2 in Week 14 after a 21-point home win over the Falcons. As it stands, the Vikings sit only a game behind the Lions for the NFC North lead.
Chicago’s struggles continued in Week 14 as road dogs in San Francisco. Despite market support hitting the Bears, interim head coach Thomas Brown’s team fell 38-13.
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NFL Week 15 Odds: Vikings vs. Bears
Vikings vs. Bears Prediction, MNF
Based on the Bears’ inability to score away from home and the Vikings’ strong defensive record against bad offenses, my Vikings vs. Bears prediction is the Bears Under 18.5 Points (-125).
A very small part of me feels like this could be a trap. After all, the Bears just recorded 27 points against the Vikings in Week 12.
But Chicago has performed markedly different on the road this season. Only the Jaguars, Panthers, Dolphins and Patriots average fewer road points per game than Chicago.
Away from home, Chicago is 1-5 to the under against 18.5 points. Their lone success? At Detroit, which is dealing with myriad injury issues to their defense.
Otherwise, the Bears have yet to crack 17 points away from home.
While the schedule has proved an issue – five of those six games have come against teams 16th or better in defensive DVOA – this isn’t the spot for positive regression.
Minnesota leads the league in defensive DVOA. The last time Chicago played a top-five defense away from home, they scored a measly 13 points against Houston.
Although Brown has improved the offense, Minnesota has largely succeeded at limiting bad offenses.
Brian Flores’ defense has played seven teams with a negative offensive DVOA rating this season. Only one has cracked 18 points (the Bears).
Sample only Minnesota’s home efforts against such teams, though, and bettors will find they’ve yet to allow more than 13 points against a team.
That creates a nice buy-low spot on the Vikings, who are playing their third straight home game and have allowed two straight opponents to clear this number.
However, those failures came against a Cardinals offense 10th in offensive DVOA and a Falcons offense 13th in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
The Bears, for the entire season, rank 25th in that category.
Add in the extra prep day for Minnesota against a Bears team playing a second straight road game, and I’ll back the under on Chicago’s team total.
Betting Vikings vs. Bears: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (ATS) | Money% (ATS) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 21% | 28% | 32% | 30% |
| Vikings | 79% | 72% | 68% | 70% |
