Conn Smythe Trophy Odds: Who Are the Favorites?

With this rematch, the Stanley Cup Final set to begin this Wednesday in Edmonton, Alberta, it’s a good time to take one more look at the Conn Smythe rankings.

There’s still a lot of consensus surrounding McDavid’s candidacy for the Conn Smythe, especially given that the betting markets have moved to make the Oilers a favorite to win the Stanley Cup. 

But on the Florida side, there are plenty of strong candidates if there isn’t an Edmonton victory. 

Here’s where the Conn Smythe Trophy odds stand as of June 3. 

Conn Smythe Trophy Odds

2024-25 Conn Smythe Trophy Favorite

Connor McDavid, C, Oilers (+100)

There are a lot of reasons why McDavid could become the Conn Smythe Trophy winner, so to say that the main reason to bet on him is because he will undoubtedly be the MVP if the Oilers win is a little dismissive. But that is the play here. 

It’s probably why the odds are structured the way they are currently: McDavid in the top spot, followed by two Panthers, followed by a drop from +500 to +1000 for the first Edmonton teammate.

I’ve written this same refrain over and over for the past few months, that I’m beginning to feel a little like Bart Simpson, but if the Oilers win, they’re not going to pick anyone other than him to win the Conn Smythe. 

And with the Oilers as a -125 favorite to win the Stanley Cup, betting McDavid is a good play. 

Just imagine the scene for a moment, McDavid holding the Stanley Cup high above his head, maybe like Zdeno Chara did, and then accepting the Conn Smythe Trophy, looking into the camera and saying, “I’m going to Disney World,” or something. I’m not sure if Disney World holds the same resonance in Canada, maybe he’ll say, “I’m going to Tim Hortons,” instead. 

2024-25 Conn Smythe Trophy Contenders

Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Panthers (+250)

Bobrovsky’s Ben Affleck-esque rise from being a semi-hated member of the Florida team due to his massive contract, a contract that even Panthers fans agree is too massive after a Stanley Cup and three-straight appearances in the Finals, to now winning a Conn Smythe would be a storybook ending. 

Excuse my Boston-centric references, but if we’re following the Affleck angle, would Bobrovsky winning the Conn Smythe be his Argo Oscars win or his marrying Jennifer Lopez for the second time? Please contact your congressman to give your opinion. 

Bobrovsky has the numbers to argue his case for the Conn Smythe. He has a 2.11 GAA through his 17 starts in the playoffs and a .912 save percentage. 

Given that it’ll be a challenging task to quell the Edmonton offense and an easy task for Florida’s forwards to get through to Oilers’ goalie Stuart Skinner, he’s probably got the best shot at winning the Conn Smythe on the Florida side. 

Aleksander Barkov, C, Panthers (+500)

Barkov is a newcomer to the upper-echelon of Conn Smythe odds. A spot that, at times, has been occupied by Mikko Rantanen or Leon Draisaitl. 

He’s got solid stats through the Panthers’ first three rounds of the playoffs. He’s on a point-a-game pace with 17 points through the 17 games he’s played. In that 17 he’s got six goals. Additionally, he’s a +4 in his time on ice. 

To me, though, the Barkov odds are too short. It’s not that he doesn’t have a shot at winning the Trophy, but I’d rather see someone like Tkachuk or even Sam Bennett at closer odds. Barkov has a good chance, but it’s not this good in my mind. 

Maybe there’s something to be said for his role as Florida’s captain, giving him a shot. 

Perhaps the PWHA voters could cast a symbolic vote in recognition of the #PantherCulture that has been built, as well as Barkov’s 11-year career with the franchise.