Conn Smythe Trophy Odds: Who Are the Favorites?

In just one short day, the NHL’s playoffs will begin, so now is as good a time as any to preview who could be holding up the Conn Smythe Trophy at the end of everything. 

For the uninitiated, the Conn Smythe is awarded each year to the most valuable player of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and BetMGM already has odds on who that winner might be. 

As of April 18, here’s a look at where those odds stand and how realistic each Conn Smythe contender’s candidacy is.

Conn Smythe Trophy Odds

2024-25 Conn Smythe Trophy Favorite

Connor McDavid, C, Oilers (+1300)

Connor McDavid, or McJesus if you’re so inclined, will probably be the prohibitive favorite for the Conn Smythe for the next few years. 

His performance in last year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs was so impressive that he was awarded the Conn Smythe without actually winning the Cup, becoming only the sixth player to do so. 

That recency could perhaps hurt McDavid’s chances of repeating unless he wins the Cup. It would be hard to envision voters casting a history-making ballot in the Conn Smythe two seasons in a row.

If you’ll indulge a quick cross-sports reference for a moment, after Rory McIlroy’s win in the Masters last weekend, McDavid has undoubtedly moved into the pole position as the number one ‘Monkey-on-his-back’ player in sports. If he can finally get that primate off of him and win the big one, he’ll surely win the Conn Smythe for the second straight season.

2024-25 Conn Smythe Trophy Contenders

Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche (+1400)

The other prominent Mac/Mc in professional hockey also has a solid shot at winning this year’s Conn Smythe. 

When his Avalanche won the Cup back in 2022, it was the youngin’ Cale Makar who came away with the Smythe. If Colorado can win again, voters may give it to the insanely productive center, Nathan MacKinnon. 

MacKinnon’s candidacy as a Conn Smythe candidate probably has a slightly better shot than McDavid’s, just given that the Avalanche were a more consistent team this regular season. What MacKinnon lacks, though, is McDavid’s name recognition. 

If the Avalanche can win in Round 1 against the Dallas Stars, a team which BetMGM has as a co-favorite for Stanley Cup odds, then MacKinnon’s Smythe odds will take a giant leap. If you believe in that possibility, take the odds now while they’re slightly lower. 

Connor Hellebuyck, G, Jets (+1500)

To quote Regina George in a slightly out-of-place reference to the 2004 comedy classic ‘Mean Girls,’ the oddsmakers might need to “Stop Trying to Make Hellebuyck Happen”.  

Is Hellebuyck’s candidacy in every major award this season’s version of ‘fetch,’ who knows? 

Do you remember the three weeks that he was a heavy favorite to win the Hart Trophy? That quickly fizzled away, even though his team locked up the Presidents’ Trophy. 

If the Jets make it to the Stanley Cup Finals and pull out a win, he’ll probably win the Conn Smythe. But I just don’t get where this consistent Hellebuyck hype comes from. 

If you’re reading this and saying ‘Screw the Presidents’ Trophy curse, Hellebuyck is my goat,’ then all the power to you, take that +1500 for him to win the Conn Smythe. 

But don’t be mad when the odds shift in a week and he suddenly moves from third to sixth place. 

Who Will Win the 2024-25 Conn Smythe? 

It’s very, very early to give any sort of reasoned answer to that question. 

However, I think the smartest play would be to take the odds on McDavid while they’re still long. It’s like betting Shohei Ohtani or Patrick Mahomes to win their league’s respective MVPs. Anytime you can get plus odds on a generational talent to win a major award, you should take it as a security measure. 

A similar ethos could be applied to Florida Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk, whose injury issues currently have him buried at +3000. 

But right now, it’s just a little too early to make anything better than an educated guess.