5 Longshots to Target at the BMW Championship

As I outlined in this week’s main preview for the BMW Championship, this hasn’t been a spot for longshots in recent years, as we haven’t seen any winner from longer than 25/1 claim this title in the past half-decade.

This idea has only intensified with last year’s implementation of shortening this field to just 50 players, which in turn obviously shortens the odds for each player.

In fact, there are just eight competitors at Castle Pines who begin the week with a triple-digit price, meaning we must redefine what we even consider a “longshot” in this event.

I’ve found five players at 40/1 or longer who each own a big enough ceiling to be considered for an outright play, just in case that recent history doesn’t repeat itself here.

5 Longshots to Target at the BMW Championship

Justin Thomas (+4000)

Unlike a year ago, when an extended poor performance led to Thomas missing the FedEx Cup playoffs, he’s hardly sitting at rock bottom right now. That said, the good weeks have been counteracted by too many weeks of “meh,” as evidenced by a T-30 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and finishes of T-31 and T-62 in his previous two starts in Scotland. 

He does own three top-10s in his last nine starts and his approach play remains a usual strong point, gaining strokes on the field in seven of those last nine. It isn’t tough to believe that for a player who once made a habit of winning, simply getting into contention could lead to an “out of nowhere” victory for the first time since the 2022 PGA Championship.

Sungjae Im (+4000)

On the list of “players who have played good enough to win this year,” Im ranks somewhere behind the likes of Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay, but not too many others. His last two results – T-41 in Greensboro and T-40 in Memphis – were a clear step back from top-12s in seven of his previous 10 starts, but he’s not far off from playing very good golf.

Last week in particular, he gained strokes with his irons (as he’s done in five of his last six) and putter (each of his last six), which should provide a nice combo entering this one.

Cameron Young (+5000)

Anyone who’s watched Young over the first three years of his PGA Tour career believes it’s a matter of “when” not “if,” but trying to break through that glass ceiling has clearly affected his performance when he does get into contention. Just two weeks ago, he was within striking distance entering the final round of the Wyndham Championship, only to play his opening five holes in 4-over and ultimately finish in a share of 22nd place.

All of that said, I’m a big believer in close calls and near-misses serving as critical experience for a player, especially one trying to win for the first time, and his nine career top-three results on the PGA Tour suggest it’ll happen at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Davis Thompson (+5500)

The recent John Deere Classic winner has the look of an impending superstar. He hits it a long way and shows virtually no emotion on the course, which might not make him the most fun guy to watch, but does make him seem like Ludvig Aberg Lite when it comes to a comparison of highly-touted youngsters.

There are some unknown variables at a course which hasn’t hosted an event in two decades, but moving the ball a long way off the tee – especially in some altitude – should always be beneficial, and it won’t be long before Thompson establishes himself as a guy who can contend with the world’s best on a stage such as this.

Thomas Detry (+10000)

To an extent, Detry can draw some distinct parallels to Young – he’s another wildly talented player who can’t seem to break through for a long-awaited victory. The big-hitting Belgian now owns an astounding 15 top-four finishes on the PGA Tour and DP World Tour combined, without a title on either circuit.

Perhaps it might be asking too much to believe it can suddenly happen this week, but a T-4 at this year’s PGA Championship and another at the signature AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at least suggest he doesn’t shy away from stiff competition. Of those aforementioned eight players with triple-digit odds this week, he’s the one I like most as a ceiling play.