5 Longshots to Target at the PGA Championship

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Whenever someone asks for a golf betting longshot, I usually reply to their question with a few queries of my own.

“How long is long? Are you only looking for outrights? Or are you just looking for players who can cash top-20/40 tickets?”

The truth is, most people just want a name – someone on whom they can throw a few bucks for a little lottery ticket action.

With that in mind, I’ll list my five longshots for this week’s PGA Championship, all at longer than 50/1 and all for outrights. Some of the names below might have lower floors than other “safe” sleepers, but if it’s win-or-bust, then I’m simply chasing the biggest ceilings from this price range.

5 Longshots to Target at the PGA Championship

Dustin Johnson (+6600)

With two players holding single-digit pre-tournament odds, there’s plenty of talent from which to choose in a mid-tier that should hold a lot of appeal. I’m first going with the guy who’s been-there/done-that at major championships. There’s been a noticeable decline in Johnson’s major performances since joining LIV, and it’s difficult to believe that’s only a coincidence. 

Perhaps nobody embodies the “I got mine” persona of the modern-day pro than this soon-to-be 40-year-old, who undoubtedly carefully considered the play less/make more conundrum and decided that something about it seemed to suit his desires. Not that DJ has played poorly on LIV — he already owns a victory this year — but he’s clearly been downgraded from one of the game’s world-class players to an afterthought, posting just a pair of top-10s (and no top-fives) in his last nine major starts. 

The tough part here is trying to decipher whether he cares that much about finding it again; after all, it’s somewhat pointless to root a guy to the finish line who doesn’t himself seem interested in breaking the tape. All of that said, he’s still one of the world’s most talented players — and if he’s even slightly motivated and determined to play well, this number feels like a no-brainer.

Sam Burns (+6600)

Overseas, it’s called the Nappy Factor and while our language barrier doesn’t quite get us to the Diaper Doctrine on this side of the pond, we can all understand the idea. While the golf world was waiting on Burns’ buddy Scottie Scheffler to welcome his first child into the world, Burns and his wife delivered early enough that he could play in last week’s Wells Fargo Championship, where he finished in a share of 13th place. Others have similarly enjoyed instant success after becoming a father for the first time. 

There are a couple of things working against him here, though, notably that he plays his best golf on Bermuda greens and these are Bentgrass and he’s never finished better than T-20 in 15 career major starts. Those are tough ones to overcome, but at this number, the five-time winner is worth a shout.

Tony Finau (+6600)

For a few years now, I’ve maintained that if you only watched the world’s best players play golf and had no other information – no results, no scores, no stats – the ol’ eyeball test would tell you that Finau is one of the game’s top-five talents. Of course, based on the results we do have, the eyeball test would be wrong. 

Finau is golf’s version of the tall, quick, strong-armed quarterback who has all the tools necessary to become a superstar, but keeps throwing the ball to the wrong team. I’m still a believer that he’s going to win a major someday, and the more generous scoring at the PGA Championship would seem to fit his game as well as any. His three top-10s in this tournament tied with his career total at the Masters. Perhaps he’ll eventually win one when we least expect it, though it can be argued that at 66/1, we might least expect it this week.

Corey Conners (+10000)

I’ll readily admit that I’m on a bit of an island here, with Conners Island otherwise replete with a bunch of snowbirds from up north. I’ve got a massive blind spot for world-class ball-strikers who can’t putt, the rationale being that “if” he figures out the flat stick, he can win on any given week. 

Of course, that’s a massive if. Conners currently ranks 25th off the tee and third on approach shots, but 143rd around the greens and 166th on them. It would take a massive reversal of fortune for him to chip and putt well enough to win, but the ball-striking is so good that it’s enough to keep me interested at a triple-digit price.

Keegan Bradley (+17500)

When I’m diving this deep down the odds board for an outright selection, I want someone who’s done it before. Even if it’s not a player who’s won a major, I at least want someone who’s triumphed against top-level fields. Bradley has proven that his best is good enough to beat the world’s best, having won a major, a WGC, signature event and FedEx Cup playoff event. 

He also happens to be trending in the right direction – statistically, at least – with three straight tournaments where his iron play has been nearly a stroke-and-a-half better than field average each time. There are plenty of players at a number near 150/1 who have never shown they can win an event of this magnitude, but I’d rather focus on someone who’s done it before.