PGA Championship Picks 2024: 1 of These 9 Players Will Win

It’s officially PGA Championship week and one of the best of the year for golf betting.

There are plenty of storylines to follow, including Rory McIlroy, coming off two straight wins, looking to win a major for the first time since 2014 (which came at Valhalla Golf Club, the site of this week’s tournament), Jordan Spieth trying to complete the career Grand Slam, Brooks Koepka looking to defend his title and many more.

Going into the week, Scottie Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +450. He’s won the last three times he’s teed it up.

Picking an outright winner is extremely hard, but there are some trends to know for this week at Valhalla.

PGA Championship Betting Strategy

Since this is a major championship, naturally, one of the best players in the game is going to win. While there have been a few outliers in recent years at this event, it is best to select the top players and stay away from long shots.

Like most events, current form does come into play, so it’s important to look at how a player is performing at the moment.

Unlike Augusta National for the Masters and other courses for regular PGA Tour events, Valhalla doesn’t host major tournaments often. The last time it hosted a major was the 2014 PGA Championship, so there isn’t much course history.

Picking a PGA Championship Winner

9 of Last 12 Winners Were Ranking 21st or Better in Official World Golf Rankings

*With LIV Golf not counting toward Official World Golf Ranking points, we’ll take the top 21 players in Data Golf’s rankings.

1. 1. Scottie Scheffler
   2. Xander Schauffele
   3. Ludvig Aberg
   4. Rory McIlroy
   5. Jon Rahm
   6. Patrick Cantlay
   7. Joaquin Niemann
   8. Tyrrell Hatton
   9. Collin Morikawa
   10. Viktor Hovland
   11. Wyndham Clark
   12. Russell Henley
   13. Tommy Fleetwood
   14. Sahith Theegala
   15. Max Homa
   16. Matt Fitzpatrick
   17. Hideki Matsuyama
   18. Bryson DeChambeau
   19. Denny McCarthy
   20. Justin Thomas
   21. Si Woo Kim

Based on recent history, these are the 21 players with a chance to win going into the week based on world ranking.

9 of Last 11 Winners Posted Top 20 in Previous Start

1. Scheffler
2. Schauffele
3. Aberg
4. McIlroy
5. Rahm
6. Niemann
7. Hatton
8. Morikawa
9. Henley
10. Fleetwood
11. Homa
12. McCarthy
13. Kim

Eliminated: Cantlay, Hovland, Clark, Theegala, Fitzpatrick, Matsuyama, DeChambeau, Thomas

Recent history has shown recent form is important going into the event. The golfers above did not have a top-20 finish in their most recent start.

8 of Last 11 Winners Had Top-10 Finish in One of the Previous 2 Major Championships

1. Scheffler
2. Schauffele
3. Aberg
4. McIlroy
5. Rahm
6. Hatton
7. Morikawa
8. Fleetwood
9. Homa

Eliminated: Niemann, Henley, McCarthy, Kim

Based on these trends, the winner will be one of the nine players above.