5 Longshots to Target at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

The Year of the Longshot on the PGA Tour was unceremoniously terminated by Scottie Scheffler, who single-handedly reminded us that, hey, sometimes the guy at the top of the board can win, too. 

We’ve now seen five of the last eight non-alternate field tournaments won by a player with single-digit golf odds, and while Scheffler has skewed the numbers by claiming four of ‘em, it’s all been enough to get us off the scent after sniffing around for sleepers during the year’s first few months.

If that trend is ever going to reverse, this week’s The CJ Cup Byron Nelson feels like the perfect spot for it.

As I wrote in my weekly preview (The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor), pre-tourney favorite Jordan Spieth (+1600) certainly hasn’t looked the part, with just one finish better than 30th in his last seven starts and a lingering wrist injury potentially hindering his progress. Alex Noren (+2200) is fourth on the list, and while he’s playing some solid golf lately, he’s 0-for-172 in his PGA Tour career. Si Woo Kim (+1600) and Jason Day (+2000) are the others at the top of the odds board.

That should be enough to have us hunting for longshots again.

Here are five candidates at triple-digit odds this week.

5 Longshots to Target at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Michael Kim (+10000)

I still wince when I hear an announcer proclaim during a broadcast, “This guy is great on X!” (I get it. The platform isn’t officially called Twitter anymore, but that just sounds so… wrong.) Anyway, Kim is indeed insightful and entertaining on social media, but that shouldn’t take away from what he’s been doing inside the ropes over the past few years. 

An elite-level amateur and collegiate player, the Cal product won the 2018 John Deere Classic and promptly lost his game, falling outside the top-1,800 in the Official World Ranking within a few years while failing to post another top-10 on the PGA Tour until midway through the 2022 season. He’s not exactly a world-beater now, but he’s risen back to the level of solid player who’s attempting to come full circle on the comeback trail. 

His best results this year have come at the American Express, Puerto Rico Open and Corales Puntacana Championship, suggesting there’s a greater comfort level against the weaker fields, which makes this one a bit more appealing than usual, especially at this price.

Taylor Pendrith (+10000)

As I wrote in my weekly preview, Pendrith is a guy who’s regularly undervalued in every marketplace. A burly Canadian who can hit the ball a mile, he fits the prototype of what we’re seeking in potential these days – namely, a guy who uses power over finesse, ranking 12th in driving distance (309.4 per drive) this year. 

It’s not all about just bludgeoning the ball off the tee, though; he also ranks 17th in putting, providing a nice driver/putter combo platter which can yield a massive ceiling if/when he puts together some of those clubs in between. He owns a pair of top-10s so far, but finishes of T-11 in both Puntacana and NOLA (alongside Corey Conners) the past two weeks, which perhaps hints bigger and better things coming shortly.

Ryan Palmer (+12500)

A member at the annual PGA Tour host venue Colonial CC, it’s actually been the other DFW-based tourney that has better suited Palmer’s game, especially since the move to Craig Ranch. Of the veteran’s five career top-10s at this event (in 19 starts), two have come in the last two years. 

Meanwhile, there have been some rumblings that Palmer is pleased with the way his game is progressing recently; it’s difficult to glean too much from last week’s two-man Zurich Classic, but best-ball scores of 63-65 alongside Zach Johnson should prove that Palmer is at least capable of posting plenty of circles to a scorecard right now. Does that mean he can also add a fifth career title – and first individual one in 14 years?

That obviously remains to be seen, but if it’s going to happen, then it’s more likely to happen against an inferior field in familiar surroundings, which suggests this price should be worthy of attacking in search of that perfect storm.

Sam Ryder (+15000)

Much like Pendrith, Ryder is an undervalued player who should hold a bit more win equity than most other guys in this price range. He hasn’t played his absolute best golf recently, but four results of 21st or better in his last 13 individual starts suggests he’s not too far off. 

Unlike Pendrith, though, he’s been doing it with some much-improved iron play lately, gaining strokes on approach shots in 13 of his last 16 measured starts, dating back to last summer. He’s not anywhere close to my favorite player on this board, but at 150/1, he makes a ton of sense for a big-number longshot.

Wesley Bryan (+20000)

It’s been a long time since Bryan’s lone PGA Tour victory at the 2017 RBC Heritage, but there’s a little we can glean from that triumph. In three of his five starts leading up to that win, Bryan finished seventh or better. 

Why is that so relevant this week? He’s fresh off a solo second-place result in his most recent start at Puntacana, which got him into this field. Bryan joined me on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show “Hitting the Green” on Monday. While he admitted that his only win was “three kids and three surgeries ago,” he told me that what he’s learned about his game is, “As far as momentum, I’m a totally different player now than I was 6-7 years ago. …  The good is still really good, it’s still there. But I do think I’m an overall better ball-striker than I was 6-7 years ago.” 

Throw in the fact that he likes TPC Craig Ranch and I like him for a big-money FRL play (as written up in the preview) and a little outright sprinkling.