5 Longshots to Target at The Memorial

Full disclosure: You’re about to read my weekly article on longshots, but I don’t really love the longshots this week. Not the ones with those big lottery-ticket prices, at least, and not to win this title outright.

As we research and prep for the Memorial Tournament, we should take special note of the pre-tourney odds for recent winners.

• 2023: Viktor Hovland 20/1
• 2022: Billy Horschel 60/1
• 2021: Patrick Cantlay 20/1
• 2020: Jon Rahm 20/1
• 2019: Patrick Cantlay 14/1
• 2018: Bryson DeChambeau 40/1

Sure, you can accuse me of not going back far enough to showcase the exploits of Will McGirt (2016) and David Lingmerth (2015), but I’d counter by mentioning that the fields were deeper back then – literally, there were a few more dozen players on the entry list than this week’s 73-man limited field.

It’s not just difficult to believe a player with triple-digit golf odds can beat the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele this week; it’s difficult to simply find that many players with such prices in this field, as only 36 players even qualify for our traditional branding of “longshot,” which I usually translate as 100/1 or longer.

Instead, I’ll revise that cutoff point to include some mid-tier types, while also suggesting that not all longshots should be used solely for outrights, but top-10/20 finishing position wagers should hold additional value in this shortened field.

5 Longshots to Target at The Memorial

Keegan Bradley (+5000)

The only thing holding me back from absolutely loving Bradley is a curiously mediocre record at this event, which shows a pair of T-8 finishes in 2015 and ’16 as his only career top-20s. I call it curious, because Muirfield Village should be a sweet setup for a player with the length/accuracy combo off the tee as Keegan, while the grass type should remind him of back home in New England. 

That said, he’s trending in the right direction, with results of 21st-18th-2nd in his last three starts, and he’s gained at least 1.37 strokes per round either off the tee or with his irons in his last five. 

As I often say about him, he’s a guy I like to target in these elite-field tournaments, considering he’s won a major, WGC, signature event and FedEx Cup playoff event in his career, proving his best is good enough to beat everyone else. If he can put ‘em both together this week, he can win here – and even if he comes close, he can cash some top-five tickets.

Sepp Straka (+6600)

On the surface, this might not seem like great value, considering 2022 winner Billy Horschel and last year’s runner-up Denny McCarthy are right about the same number, not to mention a pair of elite ball-strikers in Will Zalatoris and Jason Day. There’s a reason why Straka is priced this short, though, and that’s because he’s playing some of the best golf of his life during the past few months. 

He’s gained more than a stroke per round with his irons over each of his last five starts and, during that span, has four finishes of 16th or better, including a pair of top-fives. His overall record at this course isn’t overly spectacular, but a T-16 last year shows it’s hardly outside his wheelhouse.

Kurt Kitayama (+10000)

The list of players who have won both Arnie’s tournament and Jack’s tournament since the turn of the century is a small and prestigious one: Kenny Perry, Ernie Els, Tiger Woods (with a combined 13 victories at the two stops) and Bryson DeChambeau.

Without a doubt, Kitayama would make this list a bit more eclectic, but he’s sneakily playing some very good golf right now, finishing inside the top-40 in 11 of 12 starts this year, though only once better than 19th place. As much as it would be a wild story to see him add a Memorial win to last year’s API title, Kitayama’s longshot value clearly rests in his floor, as he makes a ton of sense for a plus-money top-20, where he only has to finish in the top 27.4 percent of this week’s field.

Taylor Moore (+12500)

If there was a course on the recent PGA Tour schedule of which we were reminded at Valhalla a few weeks ago, it might’ve been Firestone – and if there’s a course which reminds us of Firestone, it might be Muirfield Village. You get the idea: Big, brawny Midwest courses that require a nice combination of power and finesse.

Anyway, Moore finished T-12 at Valhalla, which followed results of T-20 at the Masters and T-31 at The Players. I’m not ready to call him a big-game hunter just yet, but there are hints that he can take his game up a few notches when the lights are the brightest, so I’ll have some Moore investments this week.

Cam Davis (+20000)

Two years ago at the Presidents Cup, Davis put countryman Adam Scott squarely on his back and carried them to a match victory on Saturday afternoon. “This is a dream come true to be in this scenario,” he later said. “I don’t want Adam to feel old or anything, but he’s been a childhood hero of mine really right from when I started to taking golf seriously.” 

With that in mind, Davis should be carrying plenty of momentum into this week, as he defeated Scott in a U.S. Open qualifying playoff on Monday evening, cementing a spot in the field at next week’s major. He’s among the game’s more volatile players – when he’s good, he’s very good, and when he’s not, well, you get the idea – and it’s near-impossible to predict when he’ll show up, but at this price, I’ll take a chance that he comes into Muirfield Village brimming with more confidence than usual.