Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Picks: Who to Target at St. Andrews

There aren’t too many weeks on golf’s annual calendar when the DP World Tour event takes centerstage over its PGA Tour counterpart, but it happens multiple times during the autumn months, including this week, as the field at the Dunhill Links Championship makes the Sanderson Farms Championship pale in comparison.

In a way, the tournament on a three-course rotation of St. Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns will have a mini-major type of feel to it. Granted, plenty of the game’s biggest superstars won’t be there, but those who will are divided between the traditional circuits and LIV Golf, with the likes of Rory McIlroy (+650), Tommy Fleetwood (+1100) and Shane Lowry (+1800) joined by Jon Rahm (+650), Tyrrell Hatton (+1100) and Brooks Koepka (+2200).

I won’t start my card with Rory McIlroy this week, but I’d have zero problem if you do. It’s gotta be a single-bullet play (or close to it), as it’s difficult to load up on a single-digit price and back it with other outrights, yet Rory has given us reason for optimism in this market. He owns three runner-up finishes, five top-fives and seven top-12s in his last nine worldwide starts and while his penchant for coming close without claiming a trophy has been a growing concern, he’s simply playing too well to completely ignore.

If there’s an ace up his sleeve this week, it comes in the form of his usual partner in this pro-am format – a guy named Gerry McIlroy, who just happens to be his dad. That comfort zone has been beneficial in the past, as Rory finished T-4 two years ago, the lone time he’s played this one in the past half-decade. Or perhaps it just suggests that we should look beyond the outright market and go all-in on another top-five for a guy who continues to rack ‘em up.

My usual strategy this time of year – for DP World Tour events, PGA Tour events or anything else – is to identify those who have played well enough to win, but haven’t yet done so, leaving them still hungry to buckle down and play their best golf during the final three months.

There are few who fit this profile as well as Alex Noren (+2800), a former top-10 player in the world who might’ve played some of the best golf of his career in the year he turned 42. His ball-striking has largely been through the roof and his putting, though streaky, has been really good when it’s on. He shared second place at this event two years ago and was T-12 in 2021, T-15 in 2019 and T-11 in 2016. Considering he was hovering around this number in PGA Tour events for much of the summer, I love this play in what is a more top-heavy field.

Admit it: It’s been a while since you’ve even heard the name Patrick Reed (+3500), let alone considered betting him. He only played two of the four majors this year, finishing T-12 at the Masters and T-53 at the PGA Championship. There’s some semblance of recent form, though, as he finished top-five in two of his last six individual LIV events this season and was T-10 last week in Spain.

If you read the above section on McIlroy and thought to yourself, “Oh, he can’t win anything these days…” well, lemme tell you about Thomas Detry (+5500). The lanky Belgian has made a career out of close calls without winning yet on either the PGA Tour or DP World Tour, though he’s ascended to world-class talent in the process. There’s a thought that this one might not suit him, as he hasn’t played it since missing the cut three years ago, but we do know the potential is there.

Like Detry, Jordan L. Smith (+6600) has long been more of a floor play than ceiling. His recent results – four consecutive finishes of 18th or better – either suggest that using him for a consistency play is still more viable or that he might be on the verge of a third career DP World Tour victory. I’d rather use him for top-10/20 finishing position bets, though an outright couldn’t hurt.

A few weeks ago, I wrote that Billy Horschel might’ve been a beneficiary of some karma from the golf gods, as the American player who’s most embraced overseas golf won yet again at the BMW PGA Championship. If you’re looking to parlay that karma, check out Joost Luiten (+12500), who’s made more headlines this year when he didn’t play than when he did. The Dutchman qualified for the Olympics, only to have his country rule him ineligible, because officials didn’t believe he could win a medal.

Despite winning a court case, Luiten was left on the outside looking in, as the field had already been filled. It might not happen at this event, where he doesn’t own a great history, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Luiten seriously contends at some point in the next month or two.

In the past seven editions of this event, we’ve seen five winners of 50/1 or shorter and only one winner in triple-digits pre-tournament (Victor Perez in 2019), so don’t get too consumed with playing longshot outrights this week. That said, I’ve been impressed by Sam Bairstow (+15000) this year, as he’s posted 10 top-25s in 21 overall starts. The 26-year-old is still seeking his first win at this level, but should have plenty of links experience.

OK, if you still insist on sprinkling a bunch of big numbers – or want to play some finishing position bets – here are a handful of back-end-of-the-board players I don’t dislike: Shubankhar Sharma (+20000) has been very solid lately, with just one MC in his last 14 starts; Jayden Schaper (+22500) is coming off a top-10 last week; Nacho Elvira (+40000) won just four months ago, so we know he’s capable; Francesco Laporta (+40000) is starting to trend in the right direction; Nick Bachem (+50000) clearly isn’t, but he was top-25 here last year; Santiago Tarrio (+75000) has too much talent for this price; and Daniel Gavins (+150000) has been downright awful, yet he did finish solo sixth at this tournament in both 2021 and 2022.