Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

It is another exciting week on the PGA Tour with the Arnold Palmer Invitational from the Bay Hill Club & Lodge, just outside of Orlando, March 7-10.

It is a PGA Tour signature event, so all of the game’s best players will be teeing it up.

Bay Hill is one of the toughest courses players will play all year. The winning score in four of the past five years has been single-digit under par, including Scottie Scheffler in 2022 at 5-under.

Water hazards come into play on nine holes, and windy conditions are likely, which do not make for superb scoring conditions. Also, at 7,466 yards, it will demand plenty of long iron shots into greens.

Success off the tee is vital to scoring well here since the rough is thicker than most courses and penalizes poor shots more than the average PGA Tour course. 

Past history is also important, as six of the last seven winners of this tournament posted a top 15 finish at this event prior to picking up their win.

Scheffler has the best odds to win at +650. Following his win in 2022, he finished fourth a year ago.

All odds as of March 5.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week where I will be placing more of an emphasis on course history than most weeks:

Arnold Palmer Invitational Prediction

Scheffler is expected to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a 13.33% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 10%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler +650 Odds to Win

Scheffler has two top 5 finishes in his last two appearances here, including winning in 2022. He did not play the 2021 edition but finished T-15 in his debut in 2020. The No. 2-ranked player in the world enters the week with three straight top 10s.

Rory McIlroy +900 Odds to Win

No player has more history here than McIlroy, who has seven straight top 13 finishes at this event, including a win in 2018. Although he finished T-18 at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, he narrowly missed a ton of putts and had some poor luck over the four days.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleeper Picks

Keegan Bradley +5500 Odds to Win

Bradley is another player who has had some great success at this event. He has three straight top 11 finishes, including a T-10 a year ago. He’s had some solid showings in big events already this year, with a T-2 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and a T-11 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Sungjae Im +6600 Odds to Win

Sure, Im has struggled a bit of late with only one top 25 finish in his last five events, but he’s had tremendous success at Bay Hill. His worst finish is a T-21 in five tries, including two top 3s. This is a great price for one of the best ball strikers on the PGA Tour.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Rory McIlroy Outright Win +900
• Cameron Young Outright Win +2500
• Jordan Spieth Top-5 Finish +333
• Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish +105
• Sungjae Im Top-20 Finish +165

This week, I relied primarily on course history as well as my Fantasy National model. I also kept my card smaller than usual.

McIlroy is due for a big win on the PGA Tour and has had tremendous success here in the past. Meanwhile, Young is among the best players on Tour without a win. It seems like it will happen at some point this year, so why not this week?

When it came to props, I went with players who have played well at Bay Hill in the past.

Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Sam Burns
5. Collin Morikawa
6. Ludvig Aberg
7. Tom Hoge
8. Viktor Hovland
9. Luke List
10. Patrick Cantlay