AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

When it comes to golf and the PGA Tour and attempting to project what would best suit everybody invested in the product, I hate using the term “need.”

The PGA Tour doesn’t “need” a big week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It doesn’t “need” the biggest superstars to show up on the leaderboard this weekend; it doesn’t “need” to shine in the spotlight with no football to steal all the attention.

Those things certainly wouldn’t hurt, though.

Look, whether this week’s festivities at the famed links turn out to be the tournament of the year or another tedious slog, the PGA Tour is going to contest another event the following week and the week after that and for many, many weeks after that one. It’s not going anywhere, despite the in-bubble consternation over ratings points and general interest level.

All of that said, for a season which has started with a nearly imperfect trend of descending dramatics, this feels like – in the least eloquent terms possible – a really good week to have a really good week.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler returns from what was nearly a two-month absence, his season debut delayed by a Christmas dinner injury which required hand surgery. His buddy Jordan Spieth will be back after surgery, as well, hoping that his lingering wrist injury is in the past and he can compete at a world-class level once again. And Rory McIlroy is playing stateside for the first time since last August, following a quick detour to the TGL arena.

The star-studded PGA Tour signature event couldn’t come at a better time, after the first four events didn’t exactly capture the hearts and minds amongst the greater sporting landscape.

That isn’t the only trend taking place in the season’s first month. Every tournament so far has been won by a player who’d owned multiple victories already, yet was sort of a forgotten figure in the markets. Hideki Matsuyama was 25/1, Nick Taylor was 100/1, Sepp Straka was 50/1 and Harris English was 80/1, numbers which don’t stand up to the triple-digit prices of last year’s opening month, but each individually seem inflated in retrospect.

The same could be said for this week’s returning champion, as Wyndham Clark won the shortened 54-hole event from 70/1, which seems like a massive price for a top-10 talent.

Moral of the story? If the number looks too long and feels too long, it probably is.

I’ve got a few such plays listed below, but we’ll kick things off with an overdue superstar who could shine against this big-time field.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Patrick Cantlay (+1800)

As I was doing my studying and research and, yes, even trying to batten down the hunches before these odds were released, it was between Cantlay and Collin Morikawa for my favorite top-tier play. Truth be told, I probably liked Morikawa a little more, but not 50% more than Cantlay, which turned out to be the difference between the former’s 12/1 price and the 18/1 of the latter. 

I have no problem “settling” with Cantlay at a tournament where he’s been 11th-3rd-4th-11th in his past four starts, especially considering he hasn’t finished outside the top-25 since last June. That includes results of T-15 at The Sentry and T-5 at The AmEx so far this year, despite losing strokes with his irons in each. Sure, that could be cause for concern, but I’m either going to turn a blind eye to it or just search for the silver lining: His driver, wedge game and putting have all been so proficient that just a slight uptick with his irons should result in a serious title contention.

Aggressive: Justin Rose (+15000)

Search the Internet for a few minutes and you’ll find a wealth of gambling experts who will each offer a five-star lock of the week. Once in a while, they’ll even be right, letting us know with egregious social media posts to commemorate the occasion. That’s not to suggest that I’m any more accurate than anyone else trying to prognosticate the largely un-prognosticate-able nature of golf tournaments, but it underscores a main part of this job, which is to unearth value and help bettors find edges when they’re available.

I’ll readily admit that I have no idea if Rose, who missed the cut in his first start of the season last week, posting uncommonly poor ball-striking and putting stats in his lone round at Torrey South, will win this golf tournament. But here’s what I do know: He triumphed here two years ago (granted, prior to it becoming a signature event), he has three top-11 results in five career starts and his outright price is way bigger than it should be. In fact, Rose’s 150/1 number is tied for the 70th-longest odds in this 80-man field.

There are a few others I’ll back in the outright market between Cantlay and Rose, players who fit that aforementioned trend whom I’ll list for finishing position bets below, but I think we’re doing ourselves a disservice if we’re not at least sprinkling a little on a proven winner like Rose when he’s priced like this.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Collin Morikawa (+250)

For as much as I initially liked him for an outright play this week, the thought lingered in my mind that he hasn’t won in 15 months. While that’s still 14 months more recently than Cantlay – all of which should only serve to emphasize just how damned hard it is to win at the highest level, especially now that the best players usually only play against the other best players – it made more sense to target him for a top-five, a ticket he’s cashed in two of his last three starts and six of his last 13.

There’s also the curious issue for this Cal product that he never competed here until it became a signature event, perhaps hinting that either the course rotation or the amateur component or some combination thereof goes against his preference. Throw in the fact that he was a late withdrawal last week due to flu-like symptoms, and there some things we need to overlook. All of which sounds like I’m talking myself, if not all of you, out of backing Morikawa this week, but the truth is that it’s simply downgraded his position from outright to top-five, as his ball-striking has been so devastatingly impressive for so long that it’s only a matter of time before he’s hoisting a trophy once again.

Aggressive: Maverick McNealy (+750)

A half-decade ago, in his formative years as a PGA Tour pro, McNealy finished T-5 at this event, thanks to a 66-68 weekend. The next year, he bettered that performance by a few notches, finishing runner-up. Since then, he’s failed to match those title contentions in three appearances, but this one is a simple logic equation for me: If McNealy cashed top-five tickets here when he was still trying to find his way at the highest level, then he should have an even better chance now that he’s a PGA Tour winner and a top-30 player in the world. Not to sound cheeky, but what I like most about his game is everything.

As opposed to those who tend to be specialists in one aspect, McNealy is just as likely to beat you with his driver as he is with his putter, ranking inside the top-30 last year in everything but approach stats, but even those numbers have increased monumentally as of late. He tends to putt better than his baseline on the poa annua greens in his native NorCal and a big week would vault him into the (very) early Ryder Cup discussion.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Will Zalatoris (+350)

When Tiger Woods was repeatedly trying to come back from continuing back surgeries, the lingering question amongst golf media and fans was whether he was “back.” Forgetting the obfuscation of the actual body part in question having duality with the actual issue we were debating, there was no majority rule because “back” meant something different to everyone. For some, it simply meant he was healthy enough to play again; others needed to see him in contention; there were those who wouldn’t insist he was back until he won; and a few even maintained he wouldn’t be fully back until he started winning majors again.

To be honest, the whole issue was as exhausting as it was confusing, although I’ll admit to killing a few hours of radio time on some lazy Tuesday afternoons by trying to address it. Thankfully, nobody is asking whether Zalatoris’ back is back right now, but he’s competing and appears healthy, which should answer that hypothetical for at least a small subset of the audience. He finished T-26 at Kapalua and T-12 in Palm Springs, results which should offer more optimism than pessimism, even if last week’s late withdrawal led to whispers of concern.

There was no official reason given for that WD, though considering he was hardly the only one in advance of the news that Torrey Pines will be in play again in a few weeks, it shouldn’t stoke too much concern. The reality is, I’m more concerned that he hasn’t finished better than T-55 in two previous starts at Pebble, though those occurred in 2018 and ’21, which shouldn’t have much of an impact on this week. His ball-striking is getting back to where it needs to be and as Zalatoris likes to remind people, he was a NorCal kid before he became a Texan.

Aggressive: Beau Hossler (+400)

Speaking of Californians who moved to the Lone Star State, that provides a nice little segue into Hossler, who hasn’t yet cashed any top-10s this season, but does have a pair of top-15s in his two starts. Maybe that’s an omen, as he’s similarly finished top-15 without a top-10 in each of his last two starts at Pebble, though he was solo third the year before that. Known for his short game and putting, Hossler tends to trend up in relation to the field when he comes to this event, which might’ve been the perfect option for his maiden victory if the PGA Tour hadn’t turned this one into a signature event and toughened up the field. Even so, I expect to see his name on the leaderboard come Sunday.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Nick Dunlap (+250)

As I wrote prior to his title defense at The American Express, if the oddsmakers are going to keep undervaluing Dunlap, then we should probably keep playing him. Quite honestly, I don’t understand it. He’s a 21-year-old two-time PGA Tour winner who’s proven he’s got tremendous upside and can win at this level. And yet, he’s still priced at 90/1 in the outright market in this short field. I don’t hate a little sprinkle there, but I still think there’s plenty of value as a plus-money play here to beat just 75% of the field.

Aggressive: Mark Hubbard (+300)

Even with all of the advanced analytics at our disposal these days, it’s impossible to measure this type of thing, which means I can write it and you can either choose to believe me or not, but you can’t prove me wrong: Few players love a single PGA Tour venue as much as Hubbard loves Pebble Beach. As a rookie 10 years ago, he proposed to his then-girlfriend just off the 18th green here. Since then, he’s made the cut in seven of nine starts, culminating with top-20s in his last two, including a T-4 last year, which was his best recorded putting performance in more than three years.