AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The PGA Tour is returning to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and it may be the best edition yet.

Since it’s a PGA Tour signature event, the field is limited to 80 of the best players to go along with an increased prize money purse ($20 million). 

The players will play Spyglass Hill Golf Course on Thursday and Friday and Pebble Beach Golf Links all four days. There will be no celebrity events this year, and only a select number of notable amateurs will be playing on Thursday and Friday.

This does make golf betting a bit easier, as in the past, there were three courses, and only Pebble Beach has ShotLink data.

Since it is a signature event, the field is the best in tournament history, and a lot of players haven’t played Pebble Beach except for the 2019 U.S. Open. Gary Woodland was the winner, finishing at 13-under.

Scoring is slightly better for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, as in the last five years, the winning score has either been 18 or 19-under. It is worth pointing out these events were played over three courses (Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula Country Club), and the course setups weren’t overly difficult due to the number of amateurs in the field.

Specific to this year, the weather forecast at Pebble Beach doesn’t look so good, so players who play well in rainy and windy conditions could have an advantage.

Pebble Beach plays to just under 7,000 yards, so length isn’t as much of an advantage as it is at other courses. Players get rewarded for their play 150 yards and in, especially with how small the greens are.

Rory McIlroy, who is making his 2024 PGA Tour debut, and Scottie Scheffler have the best odds to win at +850.

*All odds as of Jan. 30.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Prediction

McIlroy and Scheffler are expected to win AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with an 11.11% implied probability, according to betting markets. 

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Best Bets

Rory McIlroy +850 Odds to Win

Even though this is the first PGA Tour event of the year for McIlroy, he’s racked up a win (Hero Dubai Desert Classic) and a runner-up (Dubai Invitational) finish on the DP World Tour. He finished T-9 at the 2019 U.S. Open, which was held at Pebble.

Scottie Scheffler +850 Odds to Win

This is Scheffler’s debut at the event and he didn’t fare well at the 2019 U.S. Open as he missed the cut. But he’s the No. 1-ranked player in the world for a reason and is a threat to win every time he tees it up. Scheffler just won the Hero World Challenge in December.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Sleeper Picks

Russell Henley +4500 Odds to Win

Henley checks a lot of the boxes needed to have success at Pebble Beach, although he doesn’t have a lot of experience. In three events at Pebble, his best finish is T-15 in 2018. He is coming off a T-4 in his last start at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Brendon Todd +9000 Odds to Win

Todd was in the mix last year at this event, finishing T-2. He also finished T-16 in 2022. He doesn’t have a lot of distance off the tee but is one of the straightest drivers on the PGA Tour. This goes in line that length is not needed to succeed here.

AT&T Pebble Beach Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Jordan Spieth Outright Win +1800
• Justin Thomas Outright Win +2500
• Matt Fitzpatrick Outright Win +3300
• Jason Day Top 20 Finish +130
• Beau Hossler Top 20 Finish +160
• Nick Taylor Top 20 Finish +250

This week I relied on course history and feel over my Fantasy National model, while keeping my card fairly small.

Spieth loves Pebble and has some strong finishes here, including a win in 2017. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick and Thomas have shown they can perform well in tough conditions.

As for my props, all three players have performed well here before, and with a smaller field, a top 20 finish should be attainable.

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Russell Henley
4. Lucas Glover
5. Brendon Todd
6. J.T. Poston
7. Rory McIlroy
8. Eric Cole
9. Sam Ryder
10. Viktor Hovland