Black Desert Championship Picks: Outright Winner, Top 5, Top 10, More

These fall series events on the PGA Tour are like extra-credit assignments for golf bettors.

Sure, you can improve your grade, but the questions are going to be trickier, so you’ll really have to work at finding a correct answer.

Allow me to explain…

During the meaty portion of the schedule, knowing the prerequisites are second-nature for most diehards. The same courses host the same tournaments every year, so we’re pre-conditioned to understand what types of players should have success on each one. And for the most part, these players are competing on a regular basis, offering us a window into who’s in form with certain aspects of their game and who isn’t.

That similar rhythm doesn’t apply to these events – or at least, it hasn’t so far.

Entering last week’s Sanderson Farms Championship, most players in the field hadn’t competed more than once in the previous two months, so there wasn’t much feel for any form.

It doesn’t get any easier this week, as the tour travels to Ivins, Utah, for the first-ever Black Desert Championship hosted at the eponymous Black Desert Resort, a course which only first opened last year.

Here’s what we know: Carved out of lava and bordered by rocky desert native areas, the course offers some breathtaking visuals that should instantly separate it from the mundanity of other regular venues. It will play as a 7,371-yard par-71 on the scorecard, which is neither long nor short by PGA Tour standards, but at more than 3,000 feet above sea level, the course could have more of a Harbour Town/Colonial/Waialae feel to it, which is to suggest that it has the potential to play like other short courses which tend to favor precise ball-striking over power.

We’ve also learned over the years that PGA Tour officials usually err on the side of caution when it comes to course setup at new locations. I’m not talking about first-time U.S. Open or PGA Championship venues, which are run by other organizations, just PGA Tour events that are part of the annual schedule. 

The last thing officials want to do is produce an overly difficult test and scare off players from returning in the future, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see contending totals of better than 20-under by Sunday afternoon.

With all of that in mind, while admittedly flying blind into this one, I’m seeking excellent wedge players and those who tend to make birdies in bunches.

Black Desert Championship Outright Winner Picks

Ben Kohles (+6600)

The domino effect in the world of professional golf is an amazing thing, as there are so many direct correlations to very specific instances. Take the final hole of The Byron Nelson, for example. Played five months ago at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, it was Kohles who was in the driver’s seat through 71 holes. The reigning Korn Ferry Tour POY then proceeded to make a mess of the par-5 closer, his bogey unpredictably dropping him into second place – and with it, gone were the winner’s check, two-year exemption, Masters invitation, signature event qualification and all of the other spoils that come with winning.

I certainly can’t speak for Kohles, but that bogey might be the difference between him enjoying a lengthy vacation right now and grinding away in fall events, but it’s undoubtedly left him hungry to continue trying to peak this time of year. He was ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green during last week’s T-16 result and 10th in approach shots, which isn’t a rare spot for a guy who’s gained with his irons in seven of his last eight starts. Much like with Grillo, I like the idea of hoping a big putting performance can supplement those usual ball-striking numbers and he’s the right price to take a chance in the outright market.

Black Desert Classic Championship Top-5 Picks 

Lucas Glover (+650)

Just 14 months ago, Glover won for the first time in two years (and the second time in the past 12 years), then went out and did it again in a FedEx Cup playoff event the very next week. He’s a veteran player who, much like Patton Kizzire, tends to get hot and stay hot for a little while. That’s important to note, considering he’s fresh off his best result since those back-to-back victories, a T-3 at last week’s Sanderson Farms. I’m not the type who usually chases numbers on the roulette wheel, hoping for that little silver ball to finish in the same spot, but Glover has given us reason to make a play on his momentum.

Michael Thorbjornsen (+650)

If there’s a disadvantage for a wildly talented player who was still in college just a few months ago, it’s the lack of experience compared with others in a given field. Just about anywhere Thorbjornsen plays, he’ll need to figure out the lay of the land, from sightlines off the tees to green speeds to finding a decent dinner spot each night – all things that veteran players have already learned. This week, though, will be a new experience for everyone involved and so there’s less of that inherent disadvantage.

One colleague mentioned to me recently that Thorbjornsen could be this year’s Ludvig Aberg – essentially, a young player who wins in the fall and really jumpstarts what is bound to be a successful career – and I can’t get the idea out of my head that, like Aberg, he’s going to win in the next two months.

Black Desert Championship Top-10 Picks

Matt McCarty (+400)

How good was McCarty’s year on the Korn Ferry Tour? The lefty won three times in July and August, not only earning a battlefield promotion to the big leagues, but enough points that his No. 1 position was secure without playing in last week’s Tour Championship, as he competed in the Sanderson Farms instead.

His T-63 result wasn’t anything too special, but there’s really not a huge difference between fall series PGA Tour fields and those of the KFT, so we should expect him to start posting some better results very soon. He was 28th on the KFT in GIR percentage and first in putting, all of which seems like a nice fit for this week’s venue.

Vince Whaley (+550)

If you didn’t approve of the above Grillo/Kohles strategy of selecting strong ball-strikers and hoping they putt well, then maybe you’ll like the contradictory play of Whaley, who often pales in comparison to his peers from tee to green, but chips and putts like a top-flight talent. If my earlier assessment that this could be a birdie-fest rings true, there’s something to be said for targeting those who roll it the best, if indeed this turns into a putting contest. For a guy who ranks 11th in proximity from inside 100 yards and 31st in putting, this could be a very nice combination.

Black Desert Championship Top-20 Picks

Chez Reavie (+450)

The beginning of this year featured an amalgam of missed cuts for Reavie, who was clearly struggling with his game in West Coast events which should suit him. He’s not exactly crashing leaderboards right now, but the metrics look much better, as he’s gained strokes with his irons in six straight starts and 10 of his last 12. If this course does play as short as it might seem with the elevation, there’s a chance it could fit Reavie’s game perfectly.

Peter Kuest (+650)

I’ve written about the curious case of Kuest a few times over the past handful of months, but it’s gotten, well, even more curious recently. He just completed a Korn Ferry Tour season during which he made the cut in just seven of 19 starts and didn’t post a result better than 16th place.

However, he also got into three PGA Tour events, posting a pair of top-10s. I’m willing to chalk up these two performances as outliers rather than using them to make some widespread claim that he only plays his best golf at the highest level, but at a hefty price, I’m also hoping that lightning can strike for a third time for this BYU product, who clearly owns plenty of game, even if it hasn’t quite showed itself for much of this year.

Black Desert Championship First-Round Leader Picks 

Mark Hubbard (+6600)

Last season, Hubbard enjoyed perhaps his best campaign as a pro, with six top-10s and 12 top-25s. This season, those numbers are at two and five, respectively, with his best result coming at the two-man Zurich Classic, not an individual event. I’m not ready to start backing Hubbard for four-round investments just yet, but he’s got plenty of experience on desert tracks and isn’t afraid to go low, especially on Thursdays, with four of his last six openers in the 60s and more than half of his first rounds this year in that same range. In fact, he ranks 39th in R1 scoring average, which is enough to back him in this completely erratic market.

Zac Blair (+6600)

What, you thought I couldn’t find another guy with Utah ties to back in this home-state event? Blair is another guy who could have the right game for this venue. He ranks second-to-last in driving distance on the PGA Tour this year, but guys who keep their cards while lacking power understand just how important it is to bring their best stuff on the weeks when power isn’t as relevant. Unlike Hubbard, I don’t mind Blair for four-round plays, as well, but it would be a terrific story if he’s able to go low right off the bat.