Charles Schwab Challenge 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

Sandwiched between the PGA Championship and a designated event at the Memorial is the Charles Schwab Challenge, May 25-28, from Colonial Country Club.

Normally, many top players might take the week off, but this is different, given the rich history of the event and course.

There are eight top 20 players in the Official World Golf Rankings teeing it up, including Texas natives Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth. Other big names include Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau and Collin Morikawa.

A par-70, 7,209-yard course is a classic tree-lined positional course where length isn’t necessary to win. Players who have had the most success are the ones who keep the ball in play off the tee, hit the majority of the greens and putt average-to-good on the Bentgrass greens.

The winning score has only been better than 15-under twice since 2011, so expect decent scoring but not a complete birdie fest. 

When picking a winner, past success at the event has been essential. As noted by John Haslbauer of The Lines, of the last eight winners, five had posted a T-10 finish or better in the three years prior to winning. 

Players who fit that criteria this week are: Scheffler, Spieth, Finau, Morikawa, Justin Rose, Emiliano Grillo, Brian Harman, Brendon Todd, Charley Hoffman, Sungjae Im, Davis Riley, Cam Davis, Sam Burns, Troy Merritt, Scott Stallings, and Patton Kizzire.

Burns is the defending champion after beating Scheffler in a playoff. Following his T-2 finish at the PGA Championship, Scheffler is a big favorite at +400.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*Odds as of May 23.

Charles Schwab Challenge Predictions 

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the Wells Fargo Championship with a 20% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau have the next best odds to win with a 6.67% implied probability. Viktor Hovland follows them at 5.88%.

Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler +400 Odds to Win

Every tournament Scheffler plays in of late, he contends. He has an absurd 15 straight tournaments of finishing T-12 or better. The last time he finished outside the top 12 was in October of last year.

Specific to Colonial Country Club, this will be his fourth appearance, with his best finishing a year ago when he lost to Sam Burns.

Jordan Spieth +1400 Odds to Win

This is a home game for Spieth, and he’s had a ton of success at it over the years. In nine career appearances, he has one victory, three runner-ups, and nine total finishes within the top 14.

Spieth’s wrist injury didn’t seem to bother him much last week at the PGA Championship, where he finished T-29, but it is still worth mentioning ahead of play this week.

Charles Schwab Challenge Sleepers

Brian Harman +6600 Odds to Win

Harman has missed three of his last four cuts (Masters, Wells Fargo and PGA Championship), but the one made cut was a T-7 at the RBC Heritage. Harbour Town Golf Links is similar to this week where it’s a positional course and length isn’t necessary. 

Although he missed last year’s cut at this event, Harman has five career top-25 finishes, including a T-8 in 2021.

Eric Cole +8000 Odds to Win

Colonial Country Club seems like a perfect fit for Cole, who isn’t long by any means but stripes his irons and hits a ton of greens. He hasn’t played the event before but enters in great form, recording top-25 finishes in three of his last four starts.

Getting Cole at +8000 feels like a steal.

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Jordan Spieth Outright Win +1400
• Collin Morikawa Outright Win +1600
• Brian Harman Top-20 Finish +200
• Eric Cole Top-20 Finish +280
• Sepp Straka Top-20 Finish +300

I kept my card small this week and relied heavily on my Fantasy National model.

Spieth proved his wrist injury isn’t too much of an issue at the PGA Championship, and he’s done very well at Colonial Country Club. He also seems to have a knack of late for playing well the week after majors. He won the RBC Heritage after the Masters a year ago and lost in a playoff this year.

Morikawa is due for a win, and despite his up-and-down season, his irons have stayed sharp.

As for my props, I went with players who keep the ball in play and have had success on shorter courses.

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Tony Finau
6. Justin Rose 
7. Sepp Straka
8. Stephan Jaeger
9. Akshay Bhatia
10. Tommy Fleetwood