- Scottie Scheffler (+300) is predicted to win the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
- I predict Taylor Pendrith (+2800) is a strong buy-low candidate this week.
- My longshot bets for the week are Davis Riley and Sami Valimaki.
This week, the PGA Tour descends upon TPC Craig Ranch for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Scottie Scheffler (+300) opens as a prohibitive favorite in a fairly weak field. After Scheffler, Jordan Spieth (+1800) qualifies as the only other player priced at +2000 or shorter.
Scheffler will attempt to reverse a trend of longshot winners at this course. In two of the previous three years, a golfer priced at 80-1 or higher came home to win.
Let’s dive into my CJ Cup Byron Nelson expert picks for the week based on golf odds.
PGA Tour Expert Picks: CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Taylor Pendrith (+2800)
Rarely do you find a buy-low spot on the defending champion of an event. In Pendrith’s case, he arrives to defend a title in less-than-ideal form.
Pendrith produced a brilliant start to the season but fell off lately. Over his last 50 rounds, Pendrith ranks fifth overall in the field.
Comparatively, the Canadian ranks 44th over his last 24 rounds and 70th in his last 24 rounds.
But the last five events proved no cakewalk. Over that span, he played the API, Players, Houston Open, Masters and RBC Heritage.
Pendrith actually finished fifth in Houston, a course not too dissimilar to TPC Craig Ranch.
Examine the 50-round sample for Pendrith, and encouraging metrics pop up.
Over that span, he ranks 18th in SG: T2G, 11th in SG: APP, 11th in Birdies or Better Gained and 14th in Par 5 Efficiency.
Pair that with his success at Craig Ranch last year, and I like buying the dip on Pendrith.
Davis Riley (+8000)
Likely a popular pick this week, Riley made rapid improvement compared to his early results.
Over his last 50 rounds, Riley ranks 88th in the field. However, he’s third in my 12-round model and fourth in my 24-round model.
He also owns an outstanding record at TPC Craig Ranch. A T-9th in 2022 remains his best finish with three top-30s in four starts.
Arguably the biggest signal of Riley’s improvement was his performance at Augusta National as a rookie. There, he finished fifth for the week in SG: APP.
Over the last 12 rounds, Riley ranks ninth in SG: T2G and 11th in SG: APP.
Simultaneously, the Texas native ranks 10th in birdies or better gained, 28th in bogey avoidance and fourth in Par 5 Efficiency.
Lastly, Riley ranks fifth in the field in SG: Putting over his last 12 rounds on bentgrass greens. As a result, I like backing him at +8000 to win this week at an easy course.
Sami Valimaki (+10000)
This price strikes me as completely insane.
Recently, Valimaki qualifies as one of the best ball strikers within this field. Over his previous 12 rounds, the Finn ranks fifth in SG: T2G and first in SG: APP.
Over that timeframe, Valimaki also ranks fourth in both birdies or better gained and bogey avoidance. Further, he leads the field in Par 5 Efficiency.
While the course history is slightly troubling – missed cut last year in his lone appearance – the putter is working too well not to take a flier here.
Over his last 12 rounds on bentgrass greens, Valimaki ranks 24th in SG: Putting. In his last three individual events, he’s yet to finish outside the top-20.
Included in that run is a fourth at the Houston Open, a somewhat correlative setup to Craig Ranch.
Given Valimaki ranks fifth in my final mixed condition model, I love grabbing him at this price to win the tournament.
