The CJ Cup Byron Nelson 2025: Predictions, Best Bets

After a unique week on the PGA Tour and golf betting, with the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, the lone team event of the season, the Tour will return to Texas this week.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson from TPC Craig Ranch will be May 1-4. It isn’t a PGA Tour signature event, but a few stars are in the field, including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.

Scheffler has the best odds to win at +300.

TPC Craig Ranch is a relatively benign course that yields a lot of birdies. The winning score has been 23-under or better in the previous four editions held at the course.

Because of this, I will be targeting players who have good Birdies or Better Gained. Other key metrics I will be looking at are Driving Distance, Proximity: 200+ yards, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting.

*odds as of April 29

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is expected to win The CJ Cup Byron Nelson with a 25% implied probability, according to betting markets. Jordan Spieth is next at 5.26%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Best Bets

Stephan Jaeger Outright Winner (+3500)

Jaeger checks off a number of the key metrics needed to play well here, including distance off the tee. He averages over 303 yards, which is much better than the league average. 

He also has a very good course history at TPC Craig Ranch. Jaeger has gained the second most strokes here over the last five editions, which include three top-20 finishes in that span, including a T-20 last year.

Lastly, he’s playing well this season, especially at courses that favor longer hitters. Jaeger finished T-6 at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld in February and T-11 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open in March.

Jaeger’s lone PGA Tour win came in Texas last year, so why not make it two this week?

Ryan Gerard Top-20 Finish (+210)

While Gerard does check off a few of the key metrics needed to play well at TPC Craig Ranch, it is his recent form that gets the bulk of the attention.

Gerard has finished T-12 or better in three of his last four starts, and that includes two events in Texas (Texas Children’s Houston Open and the Valero Texas Open).

Against a relatively weak field, this feels like great value for him to finish inside the top 20.

Hayden Springer Top-20 Finish (+375)

Yes, this is a bit of a long shot, but it’s worth looking at his T-15 finish in March at the Texas Children’s Houston Open.

The two courses are very similar when it comes to rewarding length, which Springer has, ranking 37th overall on the PGA Tour this season in driving distance. 

Springer has made seven of eight cuts this season, so he has some confidence entering the event. Don’t be stunned if he posts his best finish of the year, playing a course that seems to suit his game well.