Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

Following a few weeks on the West Coast and last week in Mexico, the PGA Tour will head to the East Coast for the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, Feb. 29-March 3.

This is essentially the Honda Classic but has a different title sponsor. PGA National will host the event, just like it did the Honda Classic since 2007.

It isn’t a PGA Tour signature event, but some big names are in the field, including Rory McIlroy.

PGA National has historically been one of the harder courses on the PGA Tour, but scoring likely will be slightly better in 2024 as the par-4 10th hole has been lengthened 20 yards and converted into a 528-yard par-5. A score of 10-under or better has been enough to win this event in eight of the last 10 years.

With the change to the 10th hole, the winning score will likely be closer to 14-under (four shots better). 

Weather could also play a factor, as there has been plenty of wind in the past, creating some difficult scoring conditions.

The best ball strikers will be rewarded this week, as players will need to navigate plenty of water hazards. Players will not be able to get away with poor shots this week. For the most part, approach shots will be from 150 yards or more, so wedge play is not much of a factor. It will also be worth looking at players who putt well on Bermuda greens.

Another metric to favor is Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance. 

Chris Kirk won the Honda Classic last year, defeating Eric Cole in a playoff.

*All odds as of Feb. 28.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Prediction

Scheffler is expected to win the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches with a 11.76% implied probability, according to betting markets. Cameron Young is next at 4.35%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Best Bets

Rory McIlroy +750 Odds to Win

Although it’s been a while, McIlroy won at PGA National 12 years ago and lost in a playoff 10 years ago, so he has some great course history. While he struggled in two starts on the West Coast, he won in Dubai earlier in the year and will likely enjoy returning to Florida and the Bermuda greens.

Russell Henley +2500 Odds to Win

Not many players have a better course history than Henley. He hasn’t played the course since 2021 but has four straight top 25s here, including a T-8 in 2020 and a T-3 in 2021. He’s a master on Bermuda greens, with 14 of his 20 career top five finishes being on that type of grass.

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Sleeper Picks

Daniel Berger +4000 Odds to Win

This feels like good value to me since Berger has shown he’s relatively healthy again after missing close to two years. Berger has great recent history here, too, finishing solo fourth in 2022 and T-4 in 2020. He’s played in three tournaments so far this year with no limitations.

Robert Macintyre +10000 Odds to Win

Macintyre is one of the better ball strikers on the DP World Tour, which will greatly help him at PGA National. There is a bit of an unknown with course fit, but he’s coming off a T-6 at the Mexico Open at Vidanta, so will enter with plenty of confidence.

Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Eric Cole Outright Win +2500
• Shane Lowry Outright Win +3300
• Daniel Berger Outright Win +4000
• Chris Kirk Outright Win +4000
• Eric Cole Top-20 Finish +140
• Chris Kirk Top-20 Finish +175
• Tom Hoge Top-20 Finish +225

My card is bigger than usual this week and I relied on course history as well as my Fantasy National model.

I also doubled up on a few outrights and props for players who have had a lot of success at PGA National. 

Lowry, Berger and Kirk all feel like great value, given how talented they are combined with their track records here.

Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Taylor Pendrith
3. Luke List
4. Tom Hoge
5. Doug Ghim
6. Matthieu Pavon
7. Mark Hubbard
8. Erik van Rooyen
9. Chris Kirk
10. Davis Thompson