PGA Tour Expert Picks: Early Masters Outright Bets

Next week, golf’s first major appears on the calendar. 

That’s the 2024 Masters Tournament, which sees Scottie Scheffler (+400) appear as the favorite on the odds board. In his last three events, Scheffler finished no worse than T-2nd. 

Rounding out the top-five on the odds board are defending champion Jon Rahm (+1100), Rory McIlroy (+1100), Viktor Hovland (+1400) and Jordan Spieth (+1800). 

Here’s a look at the Masters odds and my early outright bets for the event. 

Xander Schauffele (+2000)

If it weren’t for Scheffler’s dominance this season, Schauffele would likely be receiving a lot more attention. 

He’s strung together three top-five finishes in his last four events, including a T-4th at Riviera Country Club. Historically, that’s a correlative course to Augusta National. 

Schauffele also ranks 12th on approach and third in Greens in Regulation Gained over his last 24 rounds. 

He’s also eighth in Par 5 Efficiency this year and ranks first in three-putt avoidance on “fast” or “lightning” greens in his last 24 rounds. 

Schauffele has also demonstrated success at Augusta National. 

Save for a T-50th on debut and a missed cut in 2022, he’s never finished worse than 17th in his four remaining starts. Of those fours, he’s notched two top-five finishes. 

Given he’s second in my mixed condition model, I’ll happily take him at 20/1, the sixth-best price in the field. 

Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)

Matsuyama won at Augusta National in 2021 and hasn’t let his foot off the gas in recent appearances. 

In 2022 and 2023, he added two top-20 finishes to his record at Augusta. That’s eight top-20 finishes in 12 starts at the Georgia track. 

Matsuyama also won at Riviera Country Club earlier this season, his third top-five finish at the California track since 2019. 

In terms of his underlying metrics, Matsuyama has put together a strong record this season. 

He’s third, 10th and first, respectively, in SG: T2G, SG: APP and SG: ARG over his last 24 rounds. 

Further, he’s 22nd in Par 5 Efficiency this year – including eighth on holes ranging between 550 and 600 yards – and third in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards. 

Given those metrics, there’s no reason Matsuyama can’t earn another green jacket. He’s third overall in my model, so 28/1 is more than reasonable. 

Sahith Theegala (+5000)

After starting 73-70-73 last year, Theegala exploded for a Sunday 67 to finish tied for ninth in his Masters debut. 

Given bettors have seen erratic drivers win at Augusta – I’m looking at you Jordan Spieth – Theegala could have some success in 2024. 

Although he largely lacks the experience needed to win this tournament, his underlying metrics are encouraging. 

Theegala is 25th in the field in SG: T2G over his previous 24 rounds, seventh in three-putt avoidance on quick greens and first in Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards. 

He’s also 17th in Greens in Regulation Gained over his last 24 rounds and has the aforementioned top-10 at Augusta on his resume. 

Plus, Theegala played the Par 5’s to -10 last year, the same number as eventual winner Rahm. Behind that success, he finished third in the field in Par 5 Efficiency. 

If he can clean up around the edges, Theegala can absolutely contend this year. He’s ninth in my model, so 50/1 is an outstanding price.