Farmers Insurance Open: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The PGA Tour will continue its West Coast Swing with the Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in San Diego.

Although it is not a PGA Tour signature event, a number of top players are in the field, including Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and defending champion Max Homa.

Schauffele has the best odds to win at +900.

The tournament will be contested on Torrey Pines’ North and South Courses. Players will play the North and South courses for the first two rounds and then play the South over the weekend. 

The South Course also hosted the 2021 U.S. Open.

After birdie fests the last few weeks, scores will not be as good this week. The winning score for the past four years has been between 13- and 15-under. This will be something to consider this week when selecting players, as it will be more of avoiding bogeys and taking advantage of scoring opportunities when they present themselves.

The South Course plays to 7,765 yards, so length will come in handy this week, as well as players who have good short games. Lastly, the poa greens are unique on the PGA Tour, so players who putt well on them have an advantage over the rest of the field.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week.

*All odds as of Jan. 22.

Farmers Insurance Open Prediction

Schaufele is expected to win the Farmers Insurance Open with a 10% implied probability, according to betting markets. Morikawa is next at 9.09% followed by Cantlay and Homa at 8.33%

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets

Xander Schauffele +900 Odds to Win

This is a home game for Schauffele, as he grew up in the San Diego area and, until recently, struggled a bit at Torrey Pines. He has turned it around, with three top-13 finishes in his last four starts at the course. He’s also coming off a T-3 last week at The American Express.

Collin Morikawa +1100 Odds to Win

Morikawa finished T-5 in his first event of the year at The Sentry and has an exceptional record at Torrey Pines. He finished third at this event last year and was T-4 at the 2021 U.S. Open. As is usually the case Morikawa, it will all come down to how his putter performs this week.

Farmers Insurance Open Sleeper Picks

Justin Rose +4500 Odds to Win

Rose checks a lot of boxes in what is needed to play well at Torrey Pines, and he has the course history. He won the event in 2019 and has two top 18 finishes since. It is worth pointing out Rose has struggled in his two events so far this year, with his best finish being a T-40.

Luke List +6600 Odds to Win

List has had a ton of success at Torrey Pines, including winning the 2022 edition. List has some distance, which certainly helps his cause. He finished T-22 at The Sentry and T-66 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Farmers Insurance Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Collin Morikawa Outright Win +1100
• Keegan Bradley Outright Win +3000
• Will Zalatoris Outright Win +5000
• Max Homa Top-5 Finish +220
• Sahith Theegala Top-20 Finish +160
• Will Zalatoris Top-20 Finish +200

This week, I relied on my Fantasy National model and course history. 

Now that Zalatoris has had a number of competitive rounds under his belt, I feel like he’s been undervalued at his current prices, especially at a place where he lost in a playoff two years ago.

Overall, I believe this week will be dominated by the best players in the field and not have a surprise winner like the past two weeks (Grayson Murray and Nick Dunlap).

Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Luke List
3. Patrick Cantlay
4. Taylor Pendrith
5. Sahith Theegala
6. Daniel Berger
7. Adam Svensson
8. Ludvig Aberg
9. Jason Day
10. Min Woo Lee