Farmers Insurance Open Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

First things first, because I don’t want anyone to insist that they weren’t properly warned: In order to avoid conflicting with Sunday’s NFL conference championship games, this week’s Farmers Insurance Open will once again begin Wednesday and conclude Saturday.

Which means you’d better get those bets in early. 

With one fewer day to research and revise, here’s a pro tip: Don’t bother checking out Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele or Collin Morikawa, as each is dealing with some form of injury or illness and isn’t in the field.

Neither is Rory McIlroy, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland or, of course, any of the LIV Golf regulars, though any criticisms of the decision-making process should be aimed less at these players and more as a dissertation of the have/have-not world of professional golf, which has rendered the festivities at Torrey Pines – once a Tiger Woods personal ATM where all of the game’s best players tried to challenge him – as a second-tier, non-signature event once again.

If the field feels light, the odds board doesn’t do anything to dispel that notion, as Ludvig Aberg checks in as a rightful favorite (+900) alongside Hideki Matsuyama, the winner at The Sentry a few weeks ago.

Despite Matthieu Pavon’s victory from 125/1 last year, this week’s conservative and aggressive outright selections come from the upper tier of the board, as I bank on the cream rising at a spot where elite-level ball-striking is so often rewarded.

Farmers Insurance Open Outright Bets

Conservative: Tony Finau (+2200)

I’d have to go through the ol’ Google machine to confirm this, but I’m fairly sure I’ve picked Finau to win this tournament every year for the past decade, which means I’ve had him for a runner-up finish, six top-10s, nine top-25s and … exactly zero wins. Well, guess what? I’m not jumping ship now. While his most recent result – a missed cut at The American Express – might not scream impending victory, the ball-striking I mentioned above certainly does, as Finau has gained strokes with his iron play in all but two starts over the past year, including each of the last dozen. 

He’s a guy who often needs to feel a certain comfort level to find his A-game and while he might not be foremost on the list of those who are only Horses for Courses, his record on this property serves as an example that he’s somewhat predictable as a repeat offender. This feels like a decent price considering his prime contenders, but I’ll also offer this caveat: With the field split between the South and North Courses over the first two rounds, this is a terrific spot to show a little patience and find some inflated numbers in the live markets.

Aggressive: Sahith Theegala (+3000)

Please, please, please be the first on social media to scold me for making an “aggressive” play on a 30/1 outright who’s tied for the ninth-shortest odds on the board. Guys, I get it! I’m not just trying to preemptively prevent the trolling here; I’m attempting to underscore my hunch that this week’s winner will come from a top-tier of this field which owns some clear separation over the rest, especially at a venue which usually separates the contenders from pretenders pretty easily. 

On a week when it’s tough to find a palatable price on most of these players, Theegala’s number stands out as a bargain, longer than Max Greyserman (whom I do like, as listed below) and equal to that of Max Homa and Taylor Pendrith. He didn’t exactly light it up in the year’s first two events – T-36 at The Sentry; T-37 at the Sony Open – but Theegala was T-25 in his Torrey Pines debut three years ago and tied for fourth the year after. As a guy I like targeting in West Coast events, I’d rather spend my money on him than sprinkle it on a handful of triple-digit longshots this week.

Farmers Insurance Open Top-5 Bets

Conservative: Max Greyserman (+500)

I’m picking Greyserman for a top-five because, well, he finishes inside the top-five nearly every single week. Alright, so a final-hole double-bogey last week dropped him from top-five to a share of seventh place, but that shouldn’t cloud the fact that he’s cashed these tickets in four of his last eight starts, dating back to July. The more this Duke product keeps knocking on the door, the more it seems inevitable that he’ll win his first PGA Tour title. 

In fact, his ascendancy reminds me of Aaron Rai, who appeared destined to win in the months leading up to last year’s Wyndham Championship, where he ironically beat Greyserman down the stretch. The only shame is that the oddsmakers have similarly taken notice, as Greyserman’s price continues to be perilously short for a guy who’s never won before, as he checks in at 25/1 for an outright play this week. I think he’s going to win and I think he’s going to win soon, but that feels like a terrible number to chase this week, so I’ll stick with him to keep cashing those finishing position bets instead.

Aggressive: Jason Day (+450)

Sensing a theme yet? Lest I be accused of peppering the top of the board and only playing the big names, I’ll maintain that this strategy is different than the one I most often employ. I regularly try to get aggressive with at least some of my ceiling plays, then more conservative with the floor selections, trying to hit a big-ticket outright/top-five number that’s backed with some unadventurous prop plays. This week is the other way around. 

With the best players all having gotten their feet wet during the season’s first few weeks, I’m seeing a leaderboard of big names – well, alright, the bigger names that actually showed up this week – and leaving those with longer prices for the top-20/40 markets instead. As for Day in particular, he’s got that intersection of recent form and course history that we love to target. Following last week’s T-3 result, he comes to a place where he has two victories and five other top-10 finishes in 15 career starts, making him an excellent option to repeat that top-five performance.

Farmers Insurance Open Top-10 Bets

Conservative: Daniel Berger (+450)

It’s been a mixed bag of results in this tournament over the years for Berger, whose two top-25s are offset by four missed cuts in six career starts. He did, however, post a T-7 at Torrey South when the U.S. Open was held here four years ago and he just might be starting to round into that form once again. 

After ending last year with a runner-up finish at the RSM Classic, he MC’d at the Sony despite two rounds in the 60s and opened 68-67-65 at The AmEx before a final-round 73 dropped him outside the top-20. Even so, it appears the game is nearly all the way back to where it was pre-injury and while I’m still a bit gun-shy in the outright market, I have no problem with attacking Berger in these finishing position plays.

Aggressive: Gary Woodland (+650)

In this space two weeks ago, I listed Woodland as my favorite aggressive outright for the Sony Open and while he didn’t win, a T-16 finish with four sub-70 rounds was a nice way to start his season. Much like I wrote about Finau, I’ve long believed Woodland would someday triumph at Torrey Pines, as well. Instead, his 15 appearances have yielded a greater floor than ceiling, with 13 made cuts, five top-25s and a pair of top-10s.

At 40 years old and less than a year-and-a-half removed from brain surgery to remove a benign lesion, his window is starting to close, but it’s clear his improved health is leading to improved results. Woodland now owns four top-20s in his last half-dozen starts, all of which suggests the stars could finally align for him here. Despite my insistences above that a top-of-the-board player will win, I’ll likely have a small play on his 80/1 outright number, but banking on his floor is the safer selection this week.

Farmers Insurance Open Top-20 Bets

Conservative: Beau Hossler (+200)

Yet another example of form and history converging here, as Hossler was T-12 last week and T-6 at this event last year, his second top-10 at the Farmers in eight career starts. His iron play, which has shown a lot more negatives than positives, both in the short term and long term, admittedly scares me a bit, but his short game is so proficient that I’m hoping a tough-conditions type of week will lead to a premium on making pars.

Aggressive: Doug Ghim (+275)

Same deal here, as we’re playing a convergence of Ghim’s T-21 finish last week and T-13 at this event last year. After failing to gain strokes with his irons in his first start of the year at the Sony, his AmEx performance reverted positively back to his 2024 ways, when he gained with those clubs in 14 of his final 16 starts. He remains a guy I’d rather back for a floor play than ceiling, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see Ghim contend for a few titles this season.

Farmers Insurance Open First-Round Leader bets

Conservative (South Course): J.J. Spaun (+2800)

Much like last week – and next week – this week’s tournament is being played on multiple courses, which means multiple FRL markets. I’m writing this preview before tee times have been released, so taking a few guesstimated swipes here. Through the season’s first three events, Spaun is tied for the R1 scoring average lead, which almost ensures the “law of averages” is about to catch up with him and he’ll ay a Thursday egg. At a venue where he’s yet to post a top-20 since a T-9 in his debut in 2017, this one feels like an admitted stretch, but I do like the SoCal native to continue his hot starts here. 

Aggressive (North Course): Rico Hoey (+4000)

I wrote about Hoey’s offensive firepower in last week’s preview and it led to him posting 65-63 to hold a share of the 36-hole lead before weekend scores of 74-76 left him in a share of 58th place. There’s going to be a learning curve for Hoey at this level, just as there might be a learning curve for those betting on him. I’ll scale back to a single-round investment this week, in hopes that one of the PGA Tour’s great drivers of the ball can attack whichever course he’s playing.