One round into this week’s PGA Tour and LPGA events and on the eve of the starts of the LIV Golf and PGA Tour Champions tourneys, let’s take a look at some potential betting options heading into Friday’s play.
*odds as of Thursday night
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Welp, this is the place where I’m supposed to offer up some Thursday night live outrights, but with Scottie Scheffler (-190!!) posting an opening-round 61, I can’t in good conscience recommend anyone else. That doesn’t mean he’s a shoo-in to win this thing, but if you played him pre-tournament, you’re probably not buying more shares and if you didn’t, it’s probably best to mitigate potential losses rather than throwing more laundry into the bin.
Such is the case with what I’ve termed the Scottie Conundrum over the past few years – we don’t want to play him at such a short price, but don’t want to fade him and play others, either – but if you’re convinced that the next three days will turn into a coronation for his long-awaited first victory of the year, perhaps you can use the current number as part of a parlay piece for other tourneys listed below or your favorite NHL, NBA or MLB plays.
Instead, I’ll list a few names to keep in mind for finishing position bets and matchups over the next few days.
In any other circumstance, Eric Cole (+4000) would make a lot of sense at this price after a 7-under 64. Perhaps there’s still value here in the “Without Scheffler” market, as Cole has bounced back from a slow start with results of 26th or better in his last four individual events.
It was Victor Perez (+40000) who led the field in SG: Approach on Thursday – not Scheffler, who ranked a close second – but he was held to a 3-under 68 largely because he lost three strokes around the greens. That type of loss usually isn’t sustainable for multiple days, so if he can clean up the wedge game, I like him to move up the board.
On a smaller scale, the same could be said for Sam Burns (+6600), who shot 67 in the first round. He was solid tee to green and on the greens, but not around them, which doesn’t worry me too much.
LIV Golf Korea
This is the first LIV event being contested at Jack Nicklaus GC in Incheon, South Korea, but not the first time we’ve seen the course in competition, as it previously hosted an LPGA event, a PGA Tour Champions event and the 2015 edition of the Presidents Cup. The par-72 will play north of 7,400 yards, but some of that distance comes from the difficult par-3s, three of which stretch over 200 yards.
Tyrrell Hatton (+900) has won twice in the past seven months, but neither of those have come on the LIV circuit. Fresh off a T-5 in Mexico City — his best result of the campaign so far — he could be due to challenge for another victory.
My favorite play on this board is Patrick Reed (+2200), who continued his strong ball-striking from the Masters with a tremendous iron performance in Mexico City. When betting international LIV events, I want to invest in players who are going to grind and Reed has shown more, shall we say, interest in his results than perhaps some of his peers.
The number feels a bit too short, but I do think we’ll see a win from young Tom McKibbin (+3300) before too long. He’s finished top-15 in five of his last seven starts.
We don’t see too many longshot winners on LIV — Adrian Meronk and Marc Leishman are the closest to that classification so far this season — but I don’t mind a sprinkle on Kevin Na (+15000), who has a lot of pride in his South Korean heritage and should be fully motivated to play his best golf.
Insperity Invitational
Don’t base your bets on last year’s result, as bad weather forced a 36-hole single-day sprint that was won by Scott Dunlap. (By the way, I spoke with Dunlap earlier this week on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio and, well, let’s just say he doesn’t quite fancy his chances to repeat if they require him to ever use a putter to get the ball into the hole.) If we look back at the two years prior, Steven Alker (+450) won both by four-stroke margins, so he makes sense yet again, even as the pre-tourney favorite.
There are two others I like in the outright market if you want to eschew the short odds. The return of Angel Cabrera (+2200) has been controversial, to say the least, but even those against his comeback to professional golf after serving a prison sentence in Argentina for threatening assault can admit that his ability to pick up a golf club and likewise pick up where he left off is fairly remarkable. He won for the first time earlier this month and considering he makes his home in nearby Houston, this would be a strong choice for his second victory.
When Cabrera won in the Tampa area, it was K.J. Choi (+3500) who finished runner-up, one of three top-10s this season. After posting just a single victory in his first three seasons of PGA Tour Champions eligibility, Choi broke through with a major win at last year’s Senior Open Championship and seems poised to not make it his last. At this price, he makes a lot of sense here.
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