Hero Dubai Desert Classic Picks: Who Could Win in Dubai?

Riddle me this, golf fans: How does it make any semblance of sense that anyone who’s ever competed with LIV Golf must serve a long-term suspension on the PGA Tour before ever making their way back, even if – as with the case of recently departed Eugenio Chacarra – the player was never even a member of the PGA Tour in the first place … and yet, the DP World Tour is a partner of the PGA Tour, but allows LIV Golf regulars to freely come and go as they choose if qualified for their events?

The answer to this somewhat rhetorical question, like 99% of answers to inquisitive world issues, is the almighty dollar, of course.

By allowing the likes of Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton and Patrick Reed to keep their memberships and play in events such as this week’s Hero Dubai Desert Classic, the DP World Tour can fine them for competing on the LIV circuit while simultaneously using each player’s name, image and likeness to help sell the tournament.

That’s like hitting a bad putt on the wrong line and somehow watching the ball go into the hole. You’re not sure how it happened, but it worked. Sort of.

In any case, let’s get to this week’s Euro event, which is comprised of a more star-studded field than its PGA Tour counterpart, as Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland and Adam Scott are among those joining the names listed above.

This is a tournament which – again, unlike this week’s PGA Tour event — traditionally doesn’t yield too many longshot winners, as McIlroy is a two-time defending champion (and four-time winner overall), preceded by Hovland and Paul Casey, with major champions Bryson DeChambeau, Sergio Garcia and Danny Willett among the winners in the past decade. Only Haotong Li and Lucas Herbert of this group could be considered “sleepers” – and even then, neither quite fit that definition.

With that in mind, let’s get to the selections for this week.

Hero Dubai Desert Classic Picks

The bad thing about picking against Rory (+350) and Rahm (+550) is hoping the winner comes from further down the board. The good thing is finding better prices. I don’t mind taking a swing at Tyrrell Hatton (+1000), who’s always played as if he has a chip on his shoulder, but might’ve added an entire boulder since playing DP events as a LIV regular. In his last four of last year, he posted a win and three other top-six results.

Matt Wallace (+4000) is a former runner-up here who skipped last year’s edition of the event to compete on the PGA Tour. This could prove to be a better decision, as he’s enjoyed some success at this venue and ended last year’s DP World Tour season riding a nice little heater.

In my preview of The AmEx this week, I wrote about being surprised that Nick Dunlap’s price has remained so long. My first click here was Thriston Lawrence (+8000), who is probably about 30 points longer than I would’ve expected. Sure, he’s missed the cut in Dubai three straight years, but remember, this is a guy who seriously contended for the Claret Jug last year. He’s an auto-play for me at this number.

I’ve had multiple professional golfers tell me that Laurie Canter (+8000) is way better than most people realize, but prior to last season, he’d gotten stuck in that purgatory in between leaving LIV and not being able to come back to the DP. That changed with his victory at the European Open in June, and while he’s yet to replicate that ceiling, his floor has been very high, with six top-25s in his last 10 starts of last year.

It’s a bit surprising that Ryan Fox’s (+9000) game hasn’t translated into PGA Tour success yet, as it still looks like he’s most comfortable playing the tour where he owns four career wins. He’s a guy I like anytime he heads overseas.

He is neither Elvis Presley nor Smylie Kaufman, but Elvis Smylie (+20000) is starting to make a name for himself, as the young lefthander won the Australian PGA Championship in his home country two months ago. This is a massive price on a kid with tons of talent.

Last but not least, if you’re intent on playing one more triple-digit longshot, I’ve been keeping an eye on Ugo Coussaud (+20000), who finished last season with five top-30s in his final eight starts. It’s probably too much to ask that his first DP World Tour victory comes in a field this strong, but he’ll win at some point this year.