John Deere Classic 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The PGA Tour will make its annual stop at TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic, July 6-9.

Although it isn’t a designated event and prior to the Scottish Open and Open Championship, the John Deere Classic will have its best field in years.

A year ago, just two top-75 players in the Official World Golf Rankings teed it up. This year, there will be 18, including Cameron Young, Denny McCarthy, Russell Henley, Eric Cole and defending champion J.T. Poston.

These players will face a relatively easy course where plenty of birdies will be made.

In the last 14 years of the event, the winning score has been 20-under or better nine times, including Poston finishing at 22-under a year ago.

With fairways and green large in size, this could be similar to last week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, where players with the hottest irons and putters will find themselves at the top of the leaderboard come the weekend.

TPC Deere Run is a par-71 that plays just over 7,200 yards. Some key metrics to favor this week are Birdie or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained and Strokes Gained: Total on easy courses.

Denny McCarthy and Russell Henley have the best odds to win at +1400, but without much star power in the field, the winner could come from really anywhere on the odds board.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

John Deere Classic Predictions 

Denny McCarthy and Russell Henley are predicted to win the John Deere Classic with a 6.67% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Cameron Young follows the pair at 5.26%.

John Deere Classic Best Bets

Denny McCarthy +1400 Odds to Win

Rarely do you see a player who has yet to win on the PGA Tour as the betting favorite, but that is what McCarthy is this week (tied with Russell Henley). McCarthy has nine top-20 finishes in his last 15 starts and is playing exceptional golf.

He also contended at this event a year ago en route to a T-6 finish.

Cameron Young + 1800 Odds to Win

At No. 19 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Young is the highest-ranked player in the field and will be looking to get his season back on track. Since finishing T-7 at the Masters, Young’s best finish is a T-32 at the U.S. Open.

With a number of birdies expected to be made and not the strongest of fields, this could be just what Young needs.

John Deere Classic Sleepers

Beau Hossler +5000 Odds to Win

The 28-year-old has missed his last two cuts but finished each week 3-under, so it’s not like he enters playing poor golf. Hossler is still searching for his first PGA Tour win, and he’s the type of player who has won this tournament in the past.

Lucas Glover +6600 Odds to Win

Glover won this event two years ago and is coming off his best finish of the year, a T-4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week. The 43-year-old isn’t having the greatest season, but this event has had a number of repeat winners.

John Deere Classic Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Russell Henley Outright Win +1400
• Eric Cole Outright Win +3300
• Akshay Bhatia Outright Win +10000
• Denny McCarthy Top-10 Finish +140
• Adam Schenk Top-10 Finish +240
• Alex Smalley Top-20 Finish +130
• Eric Cole Top-20 Finish +138

For this week, my betting card was a little shorter than a typical tournament, and I relied on my Fantasy National model.

Given the lack of star power in the field, it’s hard to predict and allows for more long shots to contend. Since the course is relatively easy, it’s also harder for players to separate themselves.

Here’s the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Emiliano Grillo
2. Russell Henley
3. Ryan Palmer
4. Eric Cole
5. Denny McCarthy
6. Akshay Bhatia
7. Alex Smalley
8. Doug Ghim
9. Nick Taylor
10. Dylan Wu