Masters Picks 2025: Lowry & Henley Offer Value

Only a week separates golf bettors from the 2025 Masters Tournament. 

As it stands, Scottie Scheffler is +450 to claim his third green jacket and second consecutive win at Augusta National. Since March 14, Scheffler’s price moved from +400 down to +450.

A notable riser is Rory McIlroy (+650), thanks to two wins this calendar year. Nearly a month ago, oddsmakers priced McIlroy at +800 to win a green jacket and complete the career grand slam. Now, the Northern Irishman sits at +650.

Here’s a look at the Masters odds as well as my early Masters picks.

Odds to Win the 2025 Masters

Masters Predictions 2025

*Odds are reflective at time of writing

Collin Morikawa (+2500)

Based on 2025 Masters Odds, I predict Collin Morikawa (+2500) is the winner of this year’s first major.

After a disappointing freshman and sophomore appearance at Augusta, Morikawa has slowly learned how to play this track. 

In the last three years, he’s recorded a top-10 finish or better all three times, including a T-3rd in 2024. 

Over that three-year span, Morikawa ranks second to Scheffler in SG: TOT at Augusta National. 

The two-time major winner has also excelled at Riviera Country Club, the course with the strongest correlations to Augusta. 

Over that same three-year period, Morikawa posted two top-10’s and three top-20’s in the Pacific Palisades. 

Plus, Morikawa has gained strokes in all three tee to green categories — off the tee, approach and around the green — each of the last two seasons. 

In totality, he ranked fourth and eighth (to date) on tour in SG: T2G in the last two seasons. 

For those reasons, I like the price on Morikawa and expect movement before April.

Ludvig Aberg (+1200)

My second 2025 Masters pick for April’s major championship is Ludvig Aberg (+1200).

Aberg came extremely close to ending the Masters debutant winless run last April, ultimately settling for a runner-up finish. 

Illness plagued Aberg in late January through February, but a win at the Genesis should give hope to those considering backing Aberg at the Masters. 

That week, Aberg gained 10 strokes tee-to-green, the third-best output of his entire career. 

As of this writing, Aberg faces tests at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship. Success at those tracks could lead to a further reduction in Aberg’s Masters odds. 

Coincidentally, Aberg’s best tee-to-green week in his career came at TPC Sawgrass last year. Ultimately, Aberg finished in a tie for eighth that week. 

Two more elements are worth noting. 

Aberg finished in a tie for fifth at Kapalua earlier this January. Per datagolf.com, Kapalua rates out as the third-most correlative course to Augusta National. 

Lastly, Aberg ranks 22nd on tour this year in birdie or better percentage on Par 5’s. That usually proves an essential element for success at Augusta. 

While the price is short, I like Aberg to learn from his experience last year and don a green jacket come April. 

Russell Henley (+5000) | Top-20 Finish (+138)

If there’s a worry to be had with Henley, it’s that his length off the tee leaves something to be desired. 

But it hasn’t deterred his record at Augusta National. Excluding his debut, Henley’s average finish at The Masters is 21.4 with three top-15s in his last five appearances. 

Earlier this season, Henley captured a win at the Arnold Palmer, another long setup that emphasizes tee-to-green play and a prolific short game. 

For the week, Henley ranked third in SG: T2G while leading the field in SG: ARG. Over his last 12 rounds, Henley ranks seventh amongst all PGA players in those categories. 

The Georgia product also sits first in greens in regulation gained over that timeframe while ranking 11th in Par 5 Efficiency. 

Henley simultaneously sits T-4th in Par 4 scoring average over the last year while sitting T-38th in Par 5 scoring average, per pgatour.com. 

Pair those data points with the fact Henley finished fourth at Augusta in 2023 and notched a pair of top-10s in his last two majors, and it’s my belief he owns higher win equity than these odds. 

As a result, I like backing Henley at 50/1 to claim his first major title come next week. 

Shane Lowry (+3300) | Top-20 Finish (+110)

After an extensive waiting period, I finally grabbed a piece of Lowry to earn his second major title. 

My chief concern with Lowry, a 2019 winner at The Open, came because of his total form at Augusta National. 

He missed the cut here in three of his first four appearances, but turned it around recently. Over his previous five Masters, he owns four top-25 finishes, including third in 2022. 

While Lowry failed to capture a win on tour this calendar year – a usual indicator of success at Augusta – he came awfully close with a runner-up at Pebble Beach. 

Lowry simultaneously possesses the complete game that usually informs success at Augusta. Over his last 12 rounds: fourth in SG: T2G, fifth in SG: APP, 12th in SG: ARG. 

The Irishman also ranks fifth in bogey avoidance, ninth in Par 4 Efficiency and 19th in GIRs gained over that same sample size. 

An unknown does exist in that Lowry ranks 41st in Par 5 Efficiency. However, he rises to 13th between 550-600 yards. At Augusta, the four Par 5s range from 545 to 585. 

All told, Lowry sits second in my mixed condition model, so I like that I’m getting him at the 14th-best price in the field. 

Robert MacIntyre Top-20 Finish (+138)

While I question if MacIntyre owns the pedigree to win the event, a strong week appears much more likely. 

Over his last 12 rounds in 2025, MacIntyre sits 11th in my initial model. That shows improvement over 19th in the 24-round model and 18th in the full 2025 sample. 

Although little wiggle room exists between his placement bet and final mixed condition placement – the Scot sits 16th – a few stats inform success this week. 

Over his last 12 rounds, MacIntyre ranks 10th in SG: T2G and 14th in SG: APP. He also ranks fifth in bogey avoidance, ninth in Par 4 Efficiency and sixth in three-putt avoidance. 

A 68th-placed rating in SG: ARG initially looked concerning. However, MacIntyre gained four strokes around the green in his last event at TPC Sawgrass. 

He also experienced a pair of positive results in two starts at Augusta. After finishing T-12th on his debut, the Scot finished T-23rd last season. 

MacIntyre cashed this prop in three of his last four starts, so I like the price on him at a strong setup. 

Jon Rahm Top-10 Finish (+130)

Rahm, save for a disappointing performance last year as the defending champion, owns a brilliant record at Augusta National. 

In eight starts at the famed track, the Spaniard owns five top-10 finishes, including a victory in 2023. 

While Rahm failed to record much success at last year’s major championships, he has posted strong results early this season on LIV. 

Rahm recorded a top-10 finish or better in each of the first five events on the schedule. 

He simultaneously owns some strong metrics amongst the LIV players. Per livgolf.com, Rahm ranks third in greens percentage, ninth in scrambling percentage and T-8th in putting average. 

Rahm ranks third in SG: TOT across all rounds played at Augusta National, so I like backing him at plus-money to snag another positive result. 

Rory McIlroy Top-5 Finish (+130)

Dare I call this the best chance for McIlroy to win the Masters and complete the career grand slam? 

I won’t fault anyone who wants to take a piece of McIlroy (+650) to win the tournament. Personally, I like investing smaller amounts in longer shots (Henley, Lowry). 

That doesn’t mean I won’t take a piece of McIlroy, who owns two wins this year and three top-5s in five starts. 

In his last 11 Masters, McIlroy finished inside the top-five plus ties four times, with two of those successes coming in the last five years. 

The chief worry about McIlroy? He ranks 81st in three-putt avoidance over the last 12- and 24-round samples. 

Save for that metric, very little plagues him stat-wise. 

This season, McIlroy ranks third in SG: T2G, including 22nd on approach and a quiet 15th in around the green play. 

He simultaneously ranks ninth in bogey avoidance, sixth in Par 4 Efficiency and 14th in Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards. 

McIlroy places third in my mixed condition model, so I’ll take the plus-money on him finishing within the first five plus ties. 

Patrick Reed Top-20 Finish (+175)

Another prediction on a former winner with an outstanding course history. 

The odds here surprise me a bit as Reed cashed a top-20 ticket in all but two of his previous seven appearances at Augusta National. 

After a shaky start to the 2025 LIV campaign, Reed has begun to bounce back recently. 

After finishing T-44 and T-37 in his first two starts, he recorded three straight finishes inside the top 25. Two of those three saw Reed finish inside the top 10, including last week at Doral. 

Now you’re placing Reed at a familiar setup where he ranks 13th in SG: TOT across his career, including fourth between 2022 and 2024. 

Based on those factors, I like grabbing a heavy price on a former winner to secure a top-20 finish. 

Cameron Smith Top-20 Finish (+160)

One could essentially rinse and repeat the analysis on Smith as per above on Reed. However, a few additional factors drive me to Smith. 

In addition to a brilliant record at Augusta National – ninth in SG: TOT for his career, third in the last three years – Smith owns wins at some comparable courses to Augusta. 

Prior to departing for LIV, Smith captured victories at Kapalua and St. Andrew’s in 2022. Per datagolf.com, Kapalua owns the most correlated record to Augusta while St. Andrew’s sits 18th. 

Plus, although he never won there, Smith recorded a pair of top-10s in his last five starts at Riviera, which ranks second in correlation with Augusta. 

While Smith’s 2025 LIV record doesn’t immediately impress, he finished 20th or better in three straight events, including T-9th last week at Doral. 

Amongst all LIV players, Smith sits fifth or better in both putting average and scrambling. Given Augusta’s requirement for a strong short game, I’m willing to forgive some ball-striking metrics. 

Excluding his debut, Smith finished 20th or better in five of his previous seven visits to Augusta National. Accordingly, I like grabbing him at +160 to continue that success.

Cameron Smith (-110) Over Tyrrell Hatton

It’s a touch surprising to see this matchup priced as a straight pick ‘em, given the glaring discrepancies between each player’s record at Augusta. 

While Hatton enjoys a 3-1-1 (W-D-L) record against Smith on LIV this season, Smith bested him by a wide margin last week at Doral. 

Now you’re placing Hatton on a course where he largely owns a poor record. Hatton sits 90th in SG: TOT at Augusta for his career, including 75th from 2022 onward. 

Smith owns one of the best records at Augusta, as outlined earlier. For his career, the Aussie ranks ninth in SG: TOT at this track, including third over his last three appearances. 

Even if you set aside each player’s record at Augusta, other signs point to Smith as the right choice. 

Smith won the 2022 Open Championship at St. Andrews, a setup that mirrors some of Augusta’s qualities. At that championship, Hatton finished T-11th, nine shots off the pace. 

Lastly, Smith owns a 6-1-0 (W-D-L) head-to-head record against Hatton in seven shared appearances at this venue. Accordingly, I like the price on him to finish ahead.

Masters Betting Model

• SG: T2G (15%)
• SG: APP (10%)
• SG: ARG (10%)
• Driving Distance (5%)
• GIRs Gained (10%)
• Bogey Avoidance (10%)
• Par 4 Efficiency (15%)
• Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 Yards (15%)
• 3 Putt Avoidance (10%)

Masters Mixed Condition Model

• Masters Betting Model, Last 12 Rounds (27%)
• Masters Betting Model, Last 24 Rounds (27%)
• Masters Betting Model, All Rounds in 2025 (21%)
• SG: TOT @ Augusta National, All Rounds (15%)
• SG: TOT @ Augusta National, 2022-2024 (10%)