- The Mexico Open at VidantaWorld is Feb. 20-23.
- Distance will be the key to success for many players this week.
- Michael Thorbjornsen has a chance to pick up his first PGA Tour win.
Following two big weeks on the PGA Tour with the WM Phoenix Open and a PGA Tour signature event at the Genesis Invitational, the Tour will head to Mexico for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld.
This is just the fourth edition of the event, and many of the top players are taking the week off.
Akshay Bhatia has the best odds to win at +1400. Jake Knapp is the defending champion, with Tony Finau and Jon Rahm winning in the two years prior.
VidantaWorld is the second-longest PGA Tour course the players will face all year, and it’s been apparent distance is a big advantage.
Although a long course, it is pretty wide open, which is why the long hitters tend to have the most success.
These are the type of players I will be targeting this week.
Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Prediction
Akshay Bhatia is expected to win the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld with a 6.67% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rasmus Hojgaard is next at 5.26%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
Mexico Open at VidantaWorld Best Bets
Michael Thorbjornsen Outright Winner (+6000)
Thorbjornsen certainly fits the bill as a long hitter, as he is 21st in driving distance this season, averaging 315.8 yards off the tee.
The Stanford product was No. 1 in the PGA Tour University rankings a year ago, earning full status this season. This comes a year following last week’s winner Ludvig Aberg doing the same.
Aberg has since won two times on the PGA Tour and while Thorbjornsen doesn’t have the same talent as he does, he’s still got what it takes to win.
This feels like a perfect week for him to break through on a course that favors distance and is against a relatively weak field.
While he enters coming off two missed cuts and a T-74 this season, his missed cut at The American Express needs some context. He shot 75 at the more difficult Stadium Course following rounds of 65 and 68 on the easier La Quinta and Nicklaus courses.
This week will be similar to those courses, rather than the Stadium Course.
Michael Kim Top-10 Finish (+275)
Kim has had a terrific last few weeks on Tour. He finished T-2 at the WM Phoenix Open which got him into the Genesis Invitational at his home course of Torrey Pines. He stated he wants to continue playing in the signature events and thus needs to continue the solid play to qualify via the Aon Next 10.
The California native has improved his short game of late and has plenty of confidence, which should be enough to get him a top-10 finish this week.
Alex Smalley Top-20 Finish (+150)
Smalley checks all the boxes in terms of metrics needed to succeed here, including Driving Distances, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach and proximity 200+ yards. He also comes in playing some solid golf.
Additionally, he has three top-20s over his last four starts and a career-best T-6 showing here in 2022.
Against a subpar field, this should be enough to get him inside the top 20 come Sunday afternoon.
*odds as of Feb. 18
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