Myrtle Beach Classic Picks: Favorites Plus Longshots

If the top of the leaderboard taught us anything during last year’s inaugural edition of the opposite-field Myrtle Beach Classic, it’s that big hitters off the tee own some sort of advantage at Dunes Golf and Beach Club, which plays 7,347 yards.

There are some interesting names playing here opposite the Truist Championship.

If you want to know how far Tom Kim’s game has fallen, think about the fact that he’s playing here this week. If you really want to know how far his game has fallen, think about the fact that he’s not even the favorite.

That honor goes to Mackenzie Hughes, who at +2000 is one of our longer favorites of the year, meaning two things: There’s some value at the top of the board and the oddsmakers have about as little of a clue as to whom is going to win as the rest of us.

A little warning before we get started: These selections are not for those bettors easily prone to stomach illness.

Let’s get right to the queasiness of it all.

Myrtle Beach Classic Picks: Favorites Plus Longshots

I was tempted to start my card with Harry Hall (+3300), Sami Valimaki (+3300), Henrik Norlander (+4000) and/or Ricky Castillo (+4000), each of whom make some sense and each of whom should be somewhat popular amongst the masses. Instead, I’ll begin with a couple of other 40/1 outrights.

The first is Ryan Fox (+4000), a player I’ve alternately backed and faded, back and forth, since he’s joined the PGA Tour. I love the fact that he’s learned how to win at the highest level, having claimed 17 career victories around the world, but he’s too often appeared too average on this tour. I don’t know if a pair of top-20s in 10 starts this season is enough to dissuade me of that notion, but a top-five on this golf course last year at least has me somewhat optimistic, which is as much as I can say for most of these picks. Buckle up, guys. 

The next player on my card is Ryo Hisatsune (+4000), who doesn’t own Fox’s length, but does happen to play golf a lot better, which I’ve heard is beneficial. With four finishes of 18th or better in his last six starts, I’m actually surprised that Hisatsune has remained this long in the outright market, but I’m certainly not complaining.

If I loved Alejandro Tosti (+5000) at 80/1 in a much deeper field last week – and I did, regrettably, love him there, before he MC’d – then I suppose I should really love him at 50/1 in this field, especially with driving distance playing such a big role in determining success, though for some reason I’m not as optimistic. Even so, the price is right and the upside is absolutely there for a guy who makes a ton of birdies.

My favorite play on the board might very well be Victor Perez (+5000). I kept waiting for him to pop as a single-round investment at last week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson, as his ball-striking was brilliant through the first three rounds, but he never quite put everything together. If he can pick up where he left off, this is a world-class player who is easily better than many of those priced shorter this week.

Two weeks ago, Hisatsune teamed with Takumi Kanaya (+6600) for a top-20 at the Zurich Classic that appeared like a title contention for at least a few days. Just as former much-ballyhooed amateur Michael Thorbjornsen is starting to come into his own these past few weeks, Kanaya is doing the same, with a top-five at the CJ. He lacks length, but makes up for it with precision and short game.

There are almost no potential stories in Myrtle Beach which could even slightly knock the Truist Championship from the main headlines, but if 17-year-old Blades Brown (+10000) is able to do something special, that would certainly qualify. He was co-runner-up on the Korn Ferry Tour just two weeks ago and should seemingly be improving on a weekly basis.

I’m not convinced this is a great course fit for Matteo Manassero (+12500), but I am convinced that I want to keep taking a shot on him at this price in these inferior fields.

OK, now it’s gonna start getting uglier, but I do like the driver/putter combo of William Mouw (+15000) in relation to his odds. He was T-6 in Puerto Rico a couple of months ago.

I’m going to keep firing on Frankie Capan III (+25000) at these massive numbers, because I saw last year on the Korn Ferry Tour what he can do when his game is on and I believe he’ll be successful at this level, but man, it just hasn’t happened for him yet.

In what sounds more like a country music duo, Taylor Dickson (+25000) and Trace Crowe combined to finish T-4 at the Zurich two weeks ago. Dickson followed up with another top-30 last week, so I’ll get a small piece at this number.

And last but not least, never let Norman Xiong (+40000) go un-wagered at this price in an opposite-field event. If you like playing the Powerball each week, you’ll love making this bet.