PGA Championship Betting: Examining Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka’s Chances

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – It’s not too difficult to find a good storyline before a major championship.

I’ve been covering these things for close to a quarter-century now and the possibilities are seemingly limitless.

The host venue is always a good one. The up-and-comers who could make a name for themselves during that given week. The wily veterans hoping for one final shot at glory. The hot hands. The cold slumpers. Even the weather. And when in doubt, Tiger Woods – and whatever stage of his career he’s in – usually works.

There’s always more, too.

This week alone we’ve been entrenched in news surrounding birth, divorce and resignation – the circles of life convening at the year’s second major.

It isn’t often, though, that recent results form a perfect storm of a narrative the way they have before this one.

I’m not telling you anything you didn’t already know, but Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka each enter this week fresh off a victory in their most recent start – and in the case of Scheffler and McIlroy, their last two.

That alone has resulted in some uncommonly short numbers at the top of the pre-tournament outright market, with Scheffler at +450, McIlroy at +750 and Koepka at +1400 (tied for third-shortest odds with Xander Schauffele).

Let’s start with Scheffler, the No. 1-ranked player in the world, who’s triumphed in four of his last five, including the Masters, his only blemish being a runner-up at the Texas Children’s Houston Open when he missed a short putt on the 72nd hole.

There might only be two logical reasons to fade him this week.

The first is that the outright price – not to mention other finishing position odds – is too short for your consideration. The second is that he’s coming off a four-week absence, during which his wife Meredith gave birth to the couple’s first child.

Even so, it doesn’t sound like he’s fallen behind in his prep for this one.

“I don’t really feel like any rust has accumulated,” he said this week. “I was able to practice and play a lot at home. I’m able to do stuff at home to simulate tournament golf, especially on the greens, competing and gambling with my buddies. I don’t really want to lose to them, either, so I was able to simulate a little bit of competition at home.”

Scheffler isn’t the only one dealing with some life changes right now.

It was revealed this week that McIlroy has filed for divorce from his wife, Erica, though this news didn’t seem to impact him recently, as he paired with Shane Lowry to win the Zurich Classic a few weeks ago and this past weekend blitzed the field at the Wells Fargo Championship.

It’s been 10 years since McIlroy’s last major championship victory, but the symmetry between that week and this one is palpable.

In that situation, he’s won each of his last two starts before heading to Valhalla Golf Club for the PGA Championship. Now, he’s won his last two and returns to the very same course, teeming with optimism.

“I would say from a technical standpoint,” he explained, “some of the shots that I hit last week, some of the three-quarter shots, some of the wedge shots, some of the iron shots, combined with, you know, how good I feel with the driver at the minute, you know, when I can see those three-quarter shots and those wedge shots going and starting on the right line, you know, that obviously gives me a lot of confidence.”

Confidence isn’t usually an area lacking for Koepka.

Two weeks ago, he won LIV Golf Singapore for his fourth title since joining that league two years ago.

The defending champion from last year at Oak Hill, Koepka comes into this one armed with the knowledge that he’s already won back-to-back editions of the PGA Championship, having done so in 2018 and ’19.

“It’s just it’s a grinding week,” he said. “You’ve got to be fully locked in. I feel like you can’t take one shot off. I love that. It’s always, you’re one shot away from making a double-bogey and that’s what I love.”

Never before have a trio of the game’s elite entered a major championship on such a combined heater – not when it comes to three of them all winning in their latest appearance.

All of which should have bettors baffled, fans excited, and the players themselves licking their chops to beat each other at their best.

“I always enjoy competing against these guys,” said Koepka. “Anytime you get the best, it’s always good, and you just want them to play their best, too. You want to go out and win it.”