PGA Tour Expert Picks this Week: Farmers Insurance Open

Below are my PGA Tour expert picks for the Farmers Insurance Open based on golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook 

The second event of the California swing features three rounds at the Torrey Pines South course and a bonus round at the Torrey Pines North course. 

Following withdrawals from Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg (+900) arrives as the tournament favorite. 

He’s followed on the odds board by Hideki Matsuyama (+1100) and Sungjae Im (+1600). After that trio, 10 players are listed between +2000 and +3300. 

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Farmers Insurance Open

Sungjae Im Top-10 Finish (+175)

Im struggled last week in the American Express, following his T-3rd at The Sentry with a missed cut. 

That might cause concern for some bettors, but this qualifies as a strong buy-low spot on a player with two top-10s in his last three starts at the Farmers. 

Normally, Im’s general lack of distance off the tee would render him a stay away at the longest course on the PGA Tour. But he’s actually shown a keen ability to play well on long courses. 

Since the beginning of last season, Im ranks 11th in SG: TOT on courses over 7,400 yards. 

That record can be attributed to his strong long iron play – Im ranks 22nd in proximity: 200+ yards over the same span, including 23rd over his last 24 rounds. 

On courses over 7,400 yards, Im sits 13th since last season in proximity from that distance. 

The South Korean ranks 24th in Par 5 Efficiency over his last 24 rounds and qualifies as an excellent poa putter. In his last four appearances here, he’s gained strokes putting three times. 

One final element worth considering: Im generally excels at avoiding negative scores. Over his last 24 rounds, he’s 14th in the field in bogey avoidance

Im ranks 13th overall in my mixed condition model. Given the price and his record at Torrey Pines, he’s a buy-low candidate this week. 

Taylor Pendrith Top-20 Finish (+150)

Historically, Pendrith recorded a wide range of finishing positions at the Farmers. 

He opened with a T-16th in 2022 and followed it with a T-60th in 2023 before posting a T-9th here last season. 

The big knock of Pendrith? He’s 119th in bogey avoidance over his last 24 rounds. However, he’s posted positive avoidance metrics in each of his two starts this calendar year. 

Beyond that metric, there’s much to like about Pendrith’s profile at Torrey Pines. 

He’s a big hitter – ninth in driving distance over his last 24 rounds – with strong iron play – 17th in SG: APP and fourth in GIRs gained – over the same window. 

The Canadian also dominates Par 5’s, sitting 15th in efficiency over his last 24 rounds. Dating back to the beginning of last season, Pendrith ranks 16th in that category. 

Pendrith’s excellent isn’t limited to his ball striking. 

He profiles as a strong poa putter – for his career, he averages +0.12 strokes per round on the surface – and has gained strokes putting in all three starts at this event. 

All told, Pendrith ranks 10th in my mixed condition model. Assuming the flat stick strength continues, expect his ball striking to drive him to a strong finish.

Tony Finau Top-20 Finish (+110)

An insane worry exists with Finau – the putter simply isn’t working at the moment. 

Over his last four events, Finau has gained strokes putting only once. Across all four, he’s combined to lose 11.4 strokes putting. 

He’s also lost strokes in each of his last three trips to Torrey Pines. But it hasn’t mattered. 

Finau posted exquisite ball striking metrics at Torrey Pines and gained strokes tee to green in nine of 10 appearances at this event. 

Over those 10 starts, Finau posted eight top-20s, six top-10s and only one finish outside the top-25. 

That makes this a strong buy-low spot on Finau, who missed the cut at the American Express last week. However, he finished in a tie for 15th at the Sentry. 

Over his last 24 rounds, Finau ranks 11th and 14th, respectively, in SG: T2G and SG: APP. He’s also ninth in greens in regulation gained and 18th in bogey avoidance. 

Perhaps most importantly, Finau leads the field in SG: TOT at Torrey Pines South and sits 15th in SG: TOT on courses over 7,400 yards since last season. 

Finau ranks seventh overall in my mixed condition model. Pair that with his strong course history and plus-money on a top-20 finish is too good to pass up.