PGA Expert Picks this Week

Below are my PGA Tour expert picks for the FedEx St. Jude Championship based on golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook 

This week marks the start of the 2024 PGA Tour playoffs. 

Scottie Scheffler (+350) is the favorite with Xander Schauffele (+800) and Rory McIlroy (+900) rounding out the options in the single digits. 

Without further delay, let’s dive into my picks for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship Prediction No. 1

Ludvig Aberg Top-10 Finish (+170)

Prior to a missed cut at the Open Championship, Aberg reeled off two top-10s and a 12th in four prior starts. 

Now, he arrives at a track that should reward his strong iron and tee-to-green game along with excellence on Par 4’s. 

Over his last 36 measured rounds, the Swede ranks ninth in SG: T2G and 10th in SG: APP. He’s also third in GIRs gained, 10th in birdies or better gained and fifth in bogey avoidance. 

The 2024 Masters runner-up has also produced strength from two key proximity buckets at Southwind. For the entire season, he’s third from both 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards. 

But what gives me the most confidence in Aberg is his strength on Par 4’s. 

This calendar year, he ranks 13th in efficiency between 400-450 yards and fourth from 450-500 yards. 

Add in his strength putting on Bermuda grass — Aberg sits at +0.23 strokes/round on the surface — and I’ll back him for a top 10 at fourth in my model. 

FedEx St. Jude Championship Prediction No. 2

Justin Thomas Top-20 Finish (+105)

There’s a clear pattern to Thomas’ best finishes this year: short courses where iron play into small greens is paramount. 

With greens averaging out to only 4,300 square feet, TPC Southwind is third on tour this season in terms of the smallest greens. 

The only two courses with smaller dancefloors? Pebble Beach and Harbour Town. 

Thomas finished T-6th at the former and T-5th at the latter. He also bagged a top-five finish recently at The Travelers, another Par-70 with 5,000 square foot average greens. 

That should give bettors confidence to back Thomas, who owns two wins at TPC Southwind and only a single finish outside the top 20 in five starts. 

Even setting those trends aside, Thomas’ form is decent. Over his last 36 rounds, he’s 14th in SG: T2G, 15th in SG: APP and 16th in bogey avoidance. 

He’s also 23rd in both birdies or better gained and GIRs gained over that timeframe. 

The chief concern is that Thomas ranks outside the top 40 in both Par 4 Efficiency measures this week (400-450 and 450-500 yards). 

However, I’m willing to forgive that given his course strength. Seeing as Thomas sits 18th in my model, I’m happy to back him at plus money for a top-20 finish.