PGA Tour Expert Picks This Week: Genesis Invitational

Below are my PGA Tour expert picks for the Genesis Invitational based on golf odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Once again, Scottie Scheffler (+400) is a sizable favorite to win the event at Torrey Pines South. He’s followed closely on the odds board by Rory McIlroy (+700), who won at Pebble Beach. 

A significant drop occurs from that point with Collin Morikawa (+1400) the only other player at +1700 or shorter. All told, seven players are +2800 or shorter in the 80-player field. 

Let’s dive into my best derivative bets for the Genesis Invitational. 

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Genesis Invitational

Taylor Pendrith Top-20 Finish (-110)

Based on Pendrith’s added distance and his success at Torrey Pines, I predict Pendrith will secure a Top-20 Finish (-110). 

Pendrith found my card a few weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open and enters the Genesis first in my mixed condition model. 

Contributing to his ranking is the fact Pendrith leads the field in SG: OTT, greens in regulation gained and Par 5 Efficiency. 

He also ranks 16th in SG: APP and 12th in proximity gained from beyond 200 yards. 

But this isn’t an instance where Pendrith possesses outstanding ball-striking metrics and a weak putter. Rather, he’s 18th in SG: Putting on poa since the beginning of 2024. 

Plus, Pendrith played the Farmers Insurance Open each of the previous four years. The Canadian secured a top-20 finish in three of those four starts, including consecutive top-10s. 

Even in a stronger field, Pendrith’s experience at Torrey should allow for another strong finish. 

Adam Scott Top-20 Finish (+170)

Based on Scott’s consistent ball-striking figures and past performances at Torrey Pines, I predict Scott will secure a Top-20 Finish (+170). 

Scott’s start to 2025 can best be described as….steady. 

He’s 29th in SG: OTT, 23rd in SG: APP and a slightly worrisome 58th in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards. 

But Scott ranks third in SG: TOT at Torrey Pines and ranks 12th in SG: Putting on poa since the start of 2024. In two previous appearances at The Farmers, he finished 10th and second. 

Plus, Scott improves his standing in this week’s projection as the sample size increases. 

Scott ranks fourth overall in a 24-round stat model. In that sample, he sits seventh in GIRs gained, 17th in bogey avoidance and ninth in Par 5 Efficiency. 

Further, he ranks 11th in SG: Short Game and eighth in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards. 

Scott’s formula for success this week essentially boils down to mistake-free golf, success on the Par 5’s and a hot putter on his preferred surface. 

Given he’s fifth in Par 5 Efficiency just this calendar year, one would expect Torrey suits his current game. As a result, back him to secure a top-20 finish. 

Genesis Invitational Mixed Condition Model

• SG: Off The Tee, 2025 (10%)
• Driving Distance, 2025 (5%)
• SG: Approach, 2025 (15%)
• Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards, 2025 (5%)
• Greens in Regulation Gained, 2025 (10%)
• SG: Around the Green, 2025 (10%)
• Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards, 2025 (15%)
• Par 5 Efficiency, 2025 (15%)
• SG: Putting, Poa Greens, 2024-2025 (10%)
• SG: Total, Torrey Pines South (10%(