- Scottie Scheffler (+400) is predicted to win the RBC Heritage.
- I predict Sepp Straka contends a week after missing the cut at Augusta.
- Why Tom Hoge offers a higher win equity than his current outright odds.
On the heels of the Masters, a contingent of the PGA’s best head to Harbour Town for the latest signature event.
Scottie Scheffler (+400) is the favorite to claim his first victory of the season. Scheffler won last year at Harbour Town with consecutive top-11 finishes at the Pete Dye design.
A dropoff occurs from there with Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele priced at +1100 (Morikawa and Aberg) and +1200 (Schauffele).
Let’s dive into my RBC Heritage predictions based on current golf odds.
PGA Tour Expert Picks: RBC Heritage
Sepp Straka (+4000) | Top-20 Finish (+120)
Straka’s 78-71 led to a missed cut at Augusta National, but there’s a bigger story behind the scores.
Straka’s 71 on Friday could have proved so much better if not for a bogey-triple finish that dropped him from inside the cut to outside it.
That creates a nice buy-low spot on Straka, who finished T-5th at Harbour Town last year and won the Amex. That event features two rounds on a Dye design with similar traits.
Straka also finished T-7th at Pebble Beach – another short course with small greens – with his best SG: T2G output of the season.
Over his last 24 measured rounds, Straka ranks 15th in SG: T2G, sixth in SG: APP and first in GIRs gained. He’s also 14th in fairways gained and fourth in good drives gained.
The kicker with Straka? He ranks fourth in Par 5 Efficiency over his last 24 measured rounds.
In each of the last three years, the winner at Harbour Town ranked third or better for the week in Par 5 Efficiency.
As a result, I like the buy-low spot on Straka as he seeks a second win in 2025.
Tom Hoge (+8000) | Top-30 Finish (+105)
Hoge started 2025 with mixed results, headlined by a pair of top-20s in his first eight starts.
One such success came at Pebble Beach, where Hoge’s outstanding approach play gives him an advantage over the field.
Now, he arrives at Harbour Town – 18th here last year – with three straight top-15s, including a T-3rd at the Players.
Most impressive about that turnaround is Hoge’s tee-to-green reversal. In the four events prior to this run, Hoge lost 25 strokes tee to green.
In the two events prior to the Masters: +15.9 strokes gained tee to green. At Augusta, he finished the week 25th from tee to green, including fourth on approach.
Plus, Hoge’s metrics take a big leap when you place him on a Dye design: short courses, small greens and a need for strong Par 5 play.
Since 2023, Hoge ranks third in SG: APP, fourth in Par 5 Efficiency and 24th in SG: T2G on Dye designs. Since last year, he has improved to first, first and 14th, respectively.
As a result, I like taking a big number given Hoge’s recent success with his irons.
Patrick Cantlay (+1800) | Top-10 Finish (+160)
Is it somewhat obvious? Yes.
But it’s tough to ignore Cantlay at any Dye design, let alone the course that has offered him everything but a win in his career.
In his career, Cantlay made seven starts at Harbour Town. He finished no worse than seventh in six of those appearances with a lone missed cut and three straight top-3s.
Maybe it’s the pocket-sized greens that offer Cantlay the greatest chance of success. In his career, Cantlay sits second in SG: TOT at the five courses with the smallest greens on tour.
While the metrics are slightly discouraging – 19th in my 12-round model – Cantlay enjoyed some success earlier in the season. In the 24-round model, Cantlay ranks eighth.
Driving that success: 16th in SG: T2G, 11th in SG: APP, 17th in GIRs gained and fifth in Par 5 Efficiency.
When you include Cantlay’s success at Harbour Town and on Dye designs into the initial modeling, he ranks third overall in my mixed conditional model.
As a result, I like the number on him at one of his best tracks.
RBC Heritage Betting Model
- SG: T2G (20%)
- SG: APP (20%)
- SG: ARG (10%)
- Greens in Regulation Gained (10%)
- Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards (10%)
- Par 5 Efficiency (15%)
- Bogey Avoidance (15%)
RBC Heritage Mixed Condition Model
- RBC Heritage Model: Last 12 Rounds (25%)
- RBC Heritage Model: Last 24 Rounds (25%)
- RBC Heritage Model: Last 50 Rounds (25%)
- SG: T2G, Courses Under 7,200 Yards (2024-2025) (10%)
- SG: TOT – All Harbour Town Rounds (5%)
- SG: TOT – Harbour Town (2023-2024) (5%)
- SG: TOT – Pete Dye Designs (5%)
