RSM Classic Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

I’m going full stereotype with my selections this week.

Give me all of the straight-shootin’, Bermuda-puttin’, Southern-drawlin’ guys in the RSM Classic field. I want every player who can drive over to Sea Island instead of needing a flight. Bonus points if they’re close enough to take their own golf cart. And if they can name every SEC football champion of the past two decades without hesitation and have a Southern Soul BBQ sticker on their laptop, I’ll probably lay a few bucks on ‘em here.

There’s a specific golf betting profile we’re seeking at the final full-field PGA Tour event of this year – and members of the so-called Sea Island Mafia often fit that profile perfectly.

Not that it’s a foolproof plan, of course. Last year, Ludvig Aberg of Sweden won this tournament, and he’s once again the prohibitive favorite this week. Adam Svensson and Mackenzie Hughes are Canadians who have triumphed here in the past decade, and others have traveled for victories, too. 

Even so, at an event that appears set up for home cooking, I’ll look toward those who fit the bill, starting with my two outright plays.

RSM Classic Outright Winner Picks

Conservative: Brian Harman (+3000)

Two years ago, Harman earned a share of runner-up honors at this sleep-in-his-own-bed event, and he’s posted a pair of other top-10s here in a dozen career starts, with just three missed cuts. He recently stated on SiriusXM that he felt he spent much of this year pressing too much, perhaps in hopes of replicating last year’s Open Championship success. 

The numbers, though, show that he hasn’t lost strokes with his irons in 11 straight tournaments, and while he hasn’t posted better than a T-9 result during that time, the game hasn’t seemed too far off. This feels like a good number in a great spot, and I love the idea of taking players who are still hungry for a W at the season finale.

Aggressive: Sepp Straka (+5000)

Despite wins from relative longshots Rafa Campos and Nico Echavarria in two of the past three weeks, I’m not looking too far down the board for my favorite aggressive outright here. Like Harman, Straka’s iron play has been well above average this year, posting positive numbers in 14 of his last 17 starts. His record here is shockingly (and frankly, concerningly) poor, with four missed cuts in five starts, and in three of those last four, he’s followed a sub-70 opener with two 75s and an 82. 

While that doesn’t inspire too much confidence for bettors, this big dude is an anomaly in that he only looks like he hits it a long way but ranks 144th in driving distance and sixth in accuracy. The latter is what’s needed on these two courses, and I like the idea of taking a chance on him reversing his fortune at a venue where he’s been snakebitten in the past.

RSM Classic Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Chris Kirk (+700)

It’s difficult not to get a little complacent after posting a win in the first event of the year, but Kirk enjoyed some under-the-radar success in the aftermath, finishing 31st or better in three of the four majors and The Players, leading to a berth in the Tour Championship field. He’s only played once during the fall – a T-35 at the Black Desert Championship – but the 2014 champion of this event should thrive in these familiar surroundings, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him add a bookend victory to that season-opener. 

Aggressive: Sam Ryder (+1800)

Ryder’s name was the last to hit the cutting room floor in the creation of last week’s column, which might help to explain why he finished in a share of fifth place. I’ll try to avoid putting the hex on him at this one, where he was T-13 one year ago and where his lack of power off the tee should once again be neutralized.

RSM Classic Top-10 Picks

Conservative: Harris English (+300)

Consider this a nice little intersection of recent form and course history for which we’re so often searching. English has finished 14th or better in each of his last three starts, and while his lengthy resume at Sea Island might not be as strong as you’d expect, he has landed inside the top-30 in three of his last four appearances. Much like others on this list, the four-time PGA Tour winner appears motivated here at season’s end, which can obviously be a great determining factor in success, as he’s shown recently.

Aggressive: Greyson Sigg (+400)

After posting four top-25s in his last five starts, including a T-9 in Bermuda last week, Sigg’s outright number (50/1) has gotten too short for me to strongly consider him in that market. I do, however, like his game and think this should be another venue which suits his strengths, as evidenced by a T-15 finish here two years ago and a T-8 last year. 

RSM Classic Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Matt Kuchar (+225)

There’s a lot to like about Kuch this week. The 46-year-old has cashed top-20 tickets in four of his last seven starts, based largely on the strength of his iron play. And while, much like English, he doesn’t quite have the RSM record you’d think he would, there are enough good scores over the past decade-plus on these courses to confidently play him for this prop, if not top-fives/10s, as well.

Aggressive: Francesco Molinari (+600)

At the risk of knowing when to say when, I’ll go back to Molinari in this market after advising him here last week and watching him finish T-17 for his first top-20 anywhere in the world since mid-January. If that courses suited his game, though, this one surely should, as well. If Kuchar can still climb leaderboards on the back-nine of his career, there’s no reason Chicco, who’s been an objectively better ball-striker for the majority of his career, can’t do the same.