Sony Open in Hawaii 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

After 59 players teed it up in The Sentry, a PGA Tour signature event last week, this week will be the first full-field event at the Sony Open in Hawaii.

Waialae Country Club will host the event from Jan. 11-14.

The course differs greatly from the Plantation Course in Kapalua, which hosted The Sentry a week ago. At 7,044 yards, it is much shorter. This means distance is not as important as it was a week ago.

It also won’t offer the same low scores. 

Si Woo Kim won the event last year at 18-under, and the average winning score over the last five years has been 19-under.

It is also worth pointing out that this is a course where past success carries a lot of weight. For example, Matt Kuchar has eight top 13 finishes at this event in his last 10 starts. Before his win last year, Kim made five straight cuts, including finishing in fourth in 2016.

I will be targeting players who have had past success at Waialae Country Club, as well as players who do well at shorter courses.

Despite a T-47 finish last week, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton have the best odds to win at +1600.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

Sony Open in Hawaii Prediction

Aberg, Fitzpatrick and Hatton are all predicted to win the Sony Open in Hawaii, with a 5.88% implied probability, according to betting markets.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets

Ludvig Aberg +1600 Odds to Win

It wasn’t the week Aberg had hoped for last week at The Sentry, finishing T-47 out of 59 golfers. But he did shoot a 63 on Sunday, so he has some good vibes coming into this week. 

It’s also worth noting Waialae Country Club is easier to play for the first time considering all the elevation changes at Kapalua.

Chris Kirk +2800 Odds to Win

Yes, he just won last week, but winning back-to-back at these events has been done before; Justin Thomas did it in 2017.

Kirk has a great track record at the Sony, logging three top 10 finishes in his last six starts, including a third-place finish a year ago and a T-2 in 2021.

Sony Open in Hawaii Sleeper Picks

Justin Rose +4500 Odds to Win

Rose fits a lot of the boxes needed to play well at Waialae, and he’s played well at the event before, finishing second in 2017.

Although Rose finished T-40 last week, he closed with a 61 on Sunday.

J.J. Spaun +5500 Odds to Win

Spaun closed out last year on a hot streak, logging four top 25 finishes in his last six starts, including a T-6 at the ZOZO Championship.

Specific to this event, he was in the hunt last year before a disappointing weekend had him finish T-12. His game is a natural fit for shorter courses.

Sony Open in Hawaii Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Corey Conners Outright Win +2800
• J.T. Poston Outright Win +3300
• Brendon Todd Outright Win +4000
• Justin Rose Outright Win +4500
• Brian Harman Top-10 Finish  +220
• Byeong Hun An Top-20 Finish +160
• Adam Hadwin Top-20 Finish +220

This week I relied more on some gut feels, course history, players who played last week and my Fantasy National model.

All of the players I picked played last week at The Sentry, so they are adjusted to the time zone change and don’t have the same rust other players will have, playing in their first event of the year.

Even though Conners didn’t make the top 10 of my model, he has the most strokes gained at this event in the last five years. Meanwhile, Todd’s putter let him down last week, and that likely won’t happen again. 

Here are my Fantasy National model rankings:

1. Russell Henley
2. Cam Davis
3. Ludvig Aberg
4. J.T. Poston
5. Brian Harman
6. Justin Rose
7. Adam Svensson
8. J.J. Spaun
9. Doug Ghim
10. Aaron Rai