Sony Open in Hawaii 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

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Corey Conners, of Canada, reacts after missing his birdie putt on the 17th green during the third round of the Tournament of Champions golf event, Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023, at Kapalua Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii.
(AP Photo/Matt York)
Ryan Hannable @RyanHannable Jan 12, 2023, 7:10 AM
  • The Sony Open in Hawaii is the first full-field event of 2023.
  • The field will be cut to the top 65 and ties following the second round.
  • Tom Kim (+1100) has the best golf odds to win.

After a break around the holidays, the PGA Tour is back with a full-field event at the Sony Open in Hawaii, which has a purse of $7.9 million.

It will be held Jan. 12-15 at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. While both tournaments are in Hawaii, it will be much different than the Sentry Tournament of Champions

The Plantation Course was wide open and yielded plenty of birdies while rewarding the longer hitters. Waialae Country Club is a much tighter course and rewards the players who keep the ball in the fairway.

Jon Rahm won last week at 27-under, but it’s unlikely the scores will be nearly as good this week. Over the last few years, the winning score has been roughly between 20 and 23-under.

The Sony Open in Hawaii field has seven top-25 players in the Official World Golf Rankings, led by No. 14 Tom Kim. He also has the best golf odds to win at +1100. 

Hideki Matsuyama is the defending champion.

The winners at the event have come from anywhere on the odds board. In the last 10 years, there have been three winners at 20-1 odds or shorter, three winners between 40-1 and 55-1 odds, and four winners between 80-1 and 100-1 odds.

Finally, one notable trend to watch is players who played the previous week at Kapalua generally perform well at Waialae. Obviously, these players are generally the best in the game, having qualified for the event. Still, it also gives them a leg up on the rest of the field with adjusting to being in Hawaii and not playing their first competitive rounds in quite some time.

Five of the last six winners played the week prior; since 2017, 73% of the players who played the week before made the cut.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

Sony Open in Hawaii Prediction

Tom Kim is predicted to win the Sony Open in Hawaii with an 8.33% implied probability, according to betting markets.

Sungjae Im has the next best odds to win with a 7.69% implied probability, followed by Jordan Spieth at 5.88% and Brian Harman at 5.26%.

Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets

Sungjae Im +1200 Odds to Win

While Im doesn’t have the greatest tournament history (zero top-10 finishes), he ranks well in important statistics. He’s exceptional off the tee at short courses and performs well on par-4s, which should be important this week.

Im did play last week and finished T-13.

Hideki Matsuyama +2000 Odds to Win

Not only did Matsuyama win a year ago, but he also enters the week with three straight top-20 finishes at the event. He’s near the top in all the vital stats and like most weeks with him, his performance will come down to how well he putts.

Matsuyama finished T-12 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Corey Conners +2500 Odds to Win

Conners has the best history at this event, with the most Strokes Gained (28.89) in the last five years, which includes three straight top-12 finishes (he didn’t play in 2021). So if Conners can get his short game in order, he has a great chance to win.

He had a solid week at Kapalua, finishing T-18.

Sony Open in Hawaii Sleepers

Keegan Bradley +3300 Odds to Win

On top of having T-12 finishes sandwiched between a missed cut the last three years at the event, Bradley ranks high in several key metrics thanks to his strong ball striking. 

It wasn’t Bradley’s best performance last week (34th), but Waialae Country Club is much better suited for his game.

Emiliano Grillo +5000 Odds to Win

With Grillo, you have to ignore his course history (missed cut, T-47, T-21, T-22) the last four years at the tournament, but he ranks very high in all the relevant stats. 

You also have to get over that he didn’t play a week ago. But, this is great value for a player with all the tools needed to have a good week.

Sony Open in Hawaii Betting Card & Other Predictions

  • Corey Conners Win Outright +2500
  • Keegan Bradley Win Outright +3300
  • Emiliano Grillo Win Outright +5000
  • Adam Svensson Win Outright +6600
  • Ben Griffin Win Outright +10000
  • Corey Connors Top-10 Finish +220
  • Adam Svensson Top-20 Finish +240

I’m staying away from the top players with the best odds for this week, given how unpredictable this tournament has been over the years.

Most of the players I selected ranked high in my model at Fantasy National. My top 10 were: Russell Henley, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, Grillo, Bradley, Billy Horschel, Conners, Griffin, Svensson, and Si Woo Kim.

It’s interesting neither Tom Kim nor Jordan Spieth, the two best players in the field, ranked very high. Kim was 19th, while Spieth was 28th.

PGA Odds at BetMGM

PGA odds are always available at the online sportsbook.

In addition to major championship betting, BetMGM has updated odds for dozens of other tournaments each year. Whether you’re seeking Honda Classic odds in February, Travelers Championship betting in June, or 3M Open odds in July, you can find everything at the sportsbook.

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About the Author

Ryan Hannable

Read More @RyanHannable

Ryan Hannable is a copy editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”

Ryan Hannable is a copy editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”