Texas Children’s Houston Open 2025: Best Bets, Predictions

The PGA Tour will head to Texas for two events before the Masters.

It will begin with the Texas Children’s Houston Open March 27-30 from Memorial Park. This is the fifth year the course has hosted the event and the second time in the spring. 

While not a PGA Tour signature event, a number of stars are in the field, including world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, as they look to prepare for the Masters.

In the previous four editions at Memorial Park, the winning score has been between 10 and 16-under, so it won’t be a birdie fest. 

In 2019, Tom Doak completed a significant overhaul of Memorial Park with input from Brooks Koepka. It is one of the longer PGA Tour courses and has significant runoffs around the green. 

Distance will be rewarded, as well as being able to avoid bogeys. 

As of Tuesday, Scheffler has the best odds to win at +400.

I will be focusing on a number of metrics this week, including Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, Proximity: 200+ yards and Strokes Gained: Putting. 

In addition, I will be favoring course history more so than other weeks.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is expected to win the Texas Children’s Houston Open with a 20.08% implied probability, according to betting markets. Rory McIlroy is next at 13.33%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Texas Children’s Houston Open Best Bets

Tony Finau Outright Winner (+3300)

Finau has some of the best course history at Memorial Park of all the players in the field, as he won in 2022 and finished T-2 a year ago.

The 35-year-old is likely glad to be done with the Florida Swing. He finished T-36 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and missed the cut at the Players Championship. 

Memorial Park is obviously a place he’s had success at before, but it’s also a course similar to where he had his best finish this season, a T-5 at the Genesis Invitational. It was held at Torrey Pines, which is another long course that played similar to a major championship. 

Finau hasn’t won since the 2023 Mexico Open, so it’s been almost a full two years. 

Following offseason knee surgery, he seems fully healthy for the first time in quite some time and is due for another win soon. 

Stephan Jaeger Top-20 Finish (+180)

Without a lot of star players in the field, I was surprised to see Jaeger’s number this high.

While he isn’t playing terrific golf, he did finish T-20 at the Players Championship and logged a T-6 at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. 

Prior to his win a year ago, he finished T-9 in 2022 here. 

Getting Jaeger at this price to finish inside the top 20 feels too good to pass up.

Sahith Theegala Top-20 Finish (+225)

It hasn’t been a great year for Theegala. Following making the Presidents Cup a year ago, he has just one top-25 finish in nine events. 

But this feels like a good week for Theegala to get things back on track. Theegala will be in a familiar place as he is a resident of the area, and he’s finished inside the top 30 in each of his last two appearances at the event.

While Theegala may not have the game to win right now, he’s still an exceptional talent, and getting him at this price for a top-20 finish shouldn’t be a regular thing for the remainder of the season.