- Scottie Scheffler (+300) is predicted to win the Memorial.
- I predict Matt Fitzpatrick outperforms his market expectation at Muirfield.
- Why bettors should buy low on Daniel Berger off a missed cut.
For the penultimate signature event of the PGA Tour season, Muirfield Village hosts the Memorial tournament.
Scottie Scheffler (+300) opens as the market favorite at the Jack Nicklaus design. Scheffler, fresh off a PGA Championship win at Quail Hollow, qualifies as a Memorial past winner.
With Rory McIlroy electing to sit out the Memorial, a big dropoff occurs on the odds board after Scheffler.
Rounding out the first five on the board are Justin Thomas (+1400), Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele (all +1600).
Let’s dive into my PGA Expert Picks for the Memorial based on golf odds from BetMGM.
The Memorial Odds
PGA Tour Expert Picks: The Memorial
Matt Fitzpatrick (+4000)
Fitzpatrick excelled at the PGA Championship and now hits a course where he owns consecutive top-10 finishes.
At Quail Hollow, the U.S. Open winner gained +8.1 strokes tee-to-green and +5.8 strokes on approach.
Both are season highs for Fitzpatrick, who improved his positioning in three straight events.
Most impressive about Fitzpatrick’s recent play is the iron turnaround. The Brit gained in three straight events on approach after losing in five straight and nine of his last 10.
From a modeling standpoint, Fitzpatrick jumps from 51st in the 24-round sample to 16th in the eight-round timeframe.
Within the latter sample, Fitzpatrick ranks seventh in SG: T2G, 10th in SG: APP, 28th in bogey avoidance and first in double bogey avoidance.
Based purely on his performance at Quail, Fitzpatrick jumps to seventh in the model while sitting 18th or better in all but one of the measure categories.
Pair that improvement with his recent trends at Muirfield, and I like Fitzpatrick’s profile this week.
Daniel Berger (+4000)
If Berger can solve his putting issues this week, no reason why he should be priced this high.
Prior to his performance at Colonial, only Scheffler outranked Berger in SG: T2G over the last 50 measured rounds.
In 12 rounds at Harbour Town, Philly Cricket Club and Quail Hollow, Berger averaged +1.93 strokes gained per round from tee to green.
That record cooled off a bit at Colonial – only +0.32 strokes gained/rounds – but I remain encouraged by Berger’s ball striking.
The trouble with Berger is he simply can’t putt. He entered Colonial having lost 2.4, 1.2 and 1.3 strokes putting in those three previous events. At Colonial, he lost over four strokes putting.
However, Berger gained with the flat stick in seven straight events prior to that cold streak. He also finished fifth in 2022 at Muirfield Village.
Prior to his missed cut at Colonial, Berger ranked third in both bogey avoidance and double avoidance.
That, in my estimation, renders Berger a strong buy-low candidate at the Memorial.
The Memorial Betting Model
- SG: T2G (20%)
- SG: Approach (20%)
- Greens in Regulation Gained (15%)
- Bogey Avoidance (15%)
- Par 4 Efficiency (5%)
- Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 Yards (10%)
- Birdies or Better Gained (10%)
- Double Bogey Avoidance (5%)
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