The RSM Classic 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

min read
Russell Henley waves after his putt on the 15th hole during the second round of the Masters golf tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on Friday, April 7, 2023, in Augusta, Ga.
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
Ryan Hannable @RyanHannable Nov 15, 2023, 9:43 AM
  • The RSM Classic is Nov. 16-19 from Sea Island, Georgia.
  • It is the final event of the 2022-23 PGA Tour regular season.
  • Ludvig Aberg (+1400) has the best odds to win.

The 2022-23 PGA Tour season has reached its final week.

The RSM Classic will be the final event of the season and the last chance for players to get into the top 125 of the FedEx Cup standings to ensure full status for 2024.

While it isn’t a PGA Tour signature event, several big names are in the field, as well as some locals.

Sea Island is very close to St. Simons Island, Georgia, where a number of PGA Tour players are residents. Brian Harman, Davis Love III, Zach Johnson, Harris English, Keith Mitchell and Patton Kizzire are all St. Simons Island residents who are in the field this week.

Ludvig Aberg has the best odds to win at +1400.

The Sea Island Resort will host the event and it will be played on two courses – Seaside and Plantation. Golfers play both courses on Thursday and Friday. Players who make the cut play the Seaside course over the weekend.

The Seaside course is a par-70 that plays 7,005 yards, while the Plantation course is a par-72 that plays 7,060 yards. The Plantation course was redone by tournament host Love III and his brother Mark in 2019. Meanwhile, in 1999, Tom Fazio redesigned the Seaside course, a links-style ocean layout.

The formula to win here has been pretty simple in recent years: keep the ball in play, hit a bunch of greens, and make a lot of putts. Due to the winds off the water and course layout, there isn’t much of a distance advantage.

Expect a lot of birdies and a close finish. 

The winning score has been 19-under or better each of the last six years, and it has gone to a playoff in three of the last five years.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

*All odds as of Nov. 14.

The RSM Classic Prediction

Golfer Ludvig Aberg is expected to win The RSM Classic with a 6.67% implied probability, according to betting markets. Russell Henley is next at 5.88%, while Harman and Cameron Young follow at 4.76%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

The RSM Classic Best Bets

Russell Henley +1600 Odds to Win

Henley performs very well in the key metrics needed to play well this week. The 34-year-old is quietly 25th in the Official World Golf Rankings and recorded four top-10 finishes this season. The only question mark is this is his first event since the Tour Championship.

Brian Harman +2000 Odds to Win

Coming in at No. 9, Harman is the highest-ranked player in the field when it comes to the Official World Golf Rankings. This is close to a home game for the 36-year-old and his first event since representing the United States well at the Ryder Cup.

The RSM Classic Sleeper Picks

Chesson Hadley +5500 Odds to Win

Not only does Hadley check off a lot of the boxes when it comes to what is needed to play well here, but he’s also in great form. He is coming off back-to-back T-7 finishes at the Shriners Children’s Open and the World Wide Technologies Championship. These strong showings have all but locked him into the top 125 of the FedEx Cup standings, so he can play freely this week.

Will Gordon +10000 Odds to Win

This is a bit of a long shot, but Gordon has had some strong showings at this event. He has two top-15 finishes in his last three appearances. The 27-year-old finished T-15 at his last tournament – the World Wide Technologies Championship – so he’s pretty much locked into full status for next season.

The RSM Classic Betting Card & Other Predictions

  • Russell Henley Outright Win +1600
  • Denny McCarthy Top-20 Finish +160
  • Chesson Hadley Top-20 Finish +225

I am keeping my card small this week and relying heavily on my Fantasy National model.

All three players ranked inside the top 10 of my model and putt exceptionally well.

Here’s the top 10 players in my Fantasy National model:

  1. Russell Henley
  2. Sam Ryder
  3. Chesson Hadley
  4. Eric Cole
  5. Doug Ghim
  6. Kelly Kraft
  7. Brendon Todd
  8. J.T. Poston
  9. Denny McCarthy
  10. Doc Redman

PGA Odds at BetMGM

PGA odds are always available at the online sportsbook.

In addition to major championship betting, BetMGM has updated odds for dozens of other tournaments each year. Whether you’re seeking Honda Classic odds in February, Travelers Championship betting in June, or 3M Open odds in July, you can find everything at the sportsbook.

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About the Author

Ryan Hannable

Read More @RyanHannable

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”

Ryan Hannable is a Content Managing Editor on the Web Content Team for BetMGM. Previously, he was a New England Patriots beat writer for WEEI in Boston. He also has published a golf book, “The Ultimate Book of Golf Trivia: 600 Questions and Answers.”