The 2025 PGA Tour season is officially here, with The Sentry from the Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii.
The annual stop to open the year is now a PGA Tour signature event, where only the winners from the previous season and the top 50 finishers in the FedEx Cup are invited.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is not in the field following a freak hand injury on Christmas. Neither is Rory McIlroy, who has never made the trip to Hawaii.
With those two not teeing it up, Xander Schauffele has the best odds to win at +650.
At 7,596 yards, the Plantation course is one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour but also one of the most beautiful ones, as the Pacific Ocean is visible from multiple holes. With that being said, the course features several dramatic elevation changes, causing the ball to carry farther and roll out more here than usual.
In fact, the majority of the longest PGA Tour drives in history have occurred here.
It is the only par-73 on the PGA Tour, which features four par-5s, so the scoring is historically low. The winning score has been 21-under or better in nine of the last 10 years, including 27-under or better the last three.
Given how wide the fairways are, I will favor driving distance this week and then par-5 scoring. I will also be looking at players who make a lot of birdies and avoid three putts.
The Sentry Prediction
Xander Schauffele is expected to win The Sentry with a 13.33% implied probability, according to betting markets. Justin Thomas is next at 9.09%.
Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.
The Sentry Best Bets
Justin Thomas Outright Winner +1000
Thomas has some of the best course history at The Sentry, including winning the event twice. After not qualifying for the event last year, the new dad could have a little extra motivation this week.
Following a disappointing final round, he finished in third place at the Hero World Challenge a few weeks ago. He also finished runner-up at the ZOZO Championship in his event before that.
Thomas feels due for a win – his last coming at the 2023 PGA Championship – and this could be the week, given his recent form combined with his past history at Kapalua.
Collin Morikawa Top-10 Finish -110
Morikawa is in a similar position to Thomas. Although he didn’t win at all in 2024, he still put together a solid season and has a great history at this event.
The 27-year-old enters the week with the most Strokes Gained at The Sentry over the last five years, which includes finishing no worse than T-7. He hasn’t played an event since the ZOZO Championship in late October.
J.T. Poston Top-20 Finish +100
Poston is sharper than most players in the field, finishing T-5 at the RSM Classic in late November and then playing in the Grant Thornton Invitational just a few weeks ago. He also won last fall at the Shriners Children’s Open. Besides the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas, most players haven’t played competitively in a 72-hole stroke play event since the Tour Championship.
In addition, he has a solid course history to lean on, including finishing T-5 at this event last year. In total, he’s finished no worse than T-21 in three appearances.
*Odds as of Dec. 31
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