Tour Championship 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The PGA Tour FedEx Cup Playoffs, and 2022-23 season, will conclude this week with the Tour Championship from East Lake in Atlanta, Georgia.

The FedEx Cup Playoffs format has the top 30 players qualifying, and there will be staggered strokes for players depending on where they are in the standings.

For example, Scottie Scheffler is No. 1 in the standings and will start at -10. Meanwhile, Jordan Spieth barely got into the field at No. 29 and will start at E.

The winner at the end of the week will be declared the FedEx Cup champion for the year.

With only 30 players in the field and the staggered strokes, it’s not a traditional week for golf betting. There isn’t much value, especially on the players starting near the top, to win outright, but there is an option to bet on golfers to win outright without the starting strokes.

Because of this, it isn’t the best tournament of the year to bet on, but there are still options to explore.

East Lake Golf Club is one of three regular stops (Sedgefield Country Club, Detroit Golf Club) on the PGA Tour designed by Donald Ross. 

Measuring just over 7,300 yards and a par-70, it is one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour, and with six par-4s over 450 yards and three par-3s over 200 yards, the longer hitters have a bit of an advantage.

But overall, East Lake will test all facets of a player’s game this week. The winner will need to hit fairways, greens, get up-and-down when needed and make a few putts.

Rory McIlroy is the defending champion, as he came from behind and defeated Scheffler a year ago.

Scheffler has the best odds to win this week at +140 (starting strokes included).

Below are some players to target, followed by my betting card for the week.

*Odds as of August 22.

Tour Championship Predictions 

Scottie Scheffler is predicted to win the BMW Championship with a 41.67% implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Rory McIlroy is next at 22.22%, while Viktor Hovland follows at 18.18%.

Tour Championship Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler +140 Odds to Win

After coming up just short a year ago against McIlroy at this event, Scheffler will be looking to get revenge this year. Coming off a T-2 finish last week at the BMW Championship and starting at 10-under, it’s hard to bet against him this week.

Rory McIlroy +350 Odds to Win

McIlroy is the defending FedEx Cup champion when he shot a 63 and 66 on the weekend to overtake Scheffler. The 34-year-old is playing some exceptional golf of late, which includes nine straight top-10 finishes worldwide. While starting three strokes behind Scheffler, he certainly has the firepower to make that up very quickly.

Tour Championship Sleepers

Xander Schauffele +2800 Odds to Win

Perhaps no one player has a better record at East Lake than Schauffele. He’s finished no worse than T-7 over six career appearances, including a victory in 2017. He also posted the low score in 2020, falling just short of Dustin Johnson’s head start to finish runner-up. Although he’s starting seven shots back, over the course of four days, that is very doable.

Max Homa +2800 Odds to Win

Homa is quietly putting together a very impressive stretch of golf. In his last four events, he’s finished no worse than T-12, including a T-6 and a T-5 in the previous two FedEx Cup Playoff events. At 4-under, he has six shots to make up, but he has an entire tournament to do it.

Tour Championship Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Max Homa Outright Win (with starting strokes) +2800
• Xander Schauffele Top-5 Finish +170
• Sungjae Im Top-10 Finish +160

This is an unusual week with the starting strokes, so it doesn’t really make sense to even use a Fantasy National model. Because of all this, my betting card will be very short.

Given Homa’s play of late, I expect him to make a run this week and is worth a shot at that price. Schauffele loves East Lake and certainly has a chance to contend despite his starting position. Lastly, Im is playing well of late, so getting inside the top 10 is certainly achievable.