Travelers Championship: PGA Expert Picks This Week

After J.J. Spaun’s win at Oakmont, the PGA Tour heads to Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. 

Scottie Scheffler (+275) arrives as the pre-tournament favorite following a T-7th at Oakmont. Scheffler won at TPC River Highlands last season with a T-4th in 2024. 

After Scheffler, Rory McIlroy (+1200) sits second on the board. Following McIlroy are Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele (+1600), along with Collin Morikawa (+1800). 

Let’s dive into my picks for the Travelers Championship based on golf odds from BetMGM. 

Travelers Championship Odds

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Travelers Championship

Justin Thomas (+2200)

Thomas missed the cut at Oakmont, a course that punished his inaccuracy off the tee. 

The good news for Thomas? His putter is working in spades. Thomas has gained with the flat stick in eight straight events and ranks third in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds. 

History tells us that winners at TPC River Highlands tend to excel with the putter. All winners have gained +1.34 strokes putting per round here compared to +0.70 for top-20 finishers. 

Thomas also owns a strong course history at TPC River Highlands. A winner at Harbour Town earlier this year, Thomas finished inside the top 10 in his last two trips to the Pete Dye design. 

Some other notable traits with Thomas: he excels on short Par 4’s and can rack up birdies in a hurry. 

Over the last 24 rounds, Thomas ranks 29th in Par 4 Efficiency: 350 or fewer yards and sixth in Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400 yards. 

Pair that with the fact Thomas sits second in birdies or better gained both over his last 24 rounds and the entirety of 2025, and I like buying the dip on Thomas. 

Daniel Berger (+5000)

Berger, a previous runner-up to Jordan Spieth at TPC River Highlands, consistently produced strong ball-striking results this season. 

Across the entirety of 2025, Berger ranks eighth in SG: OTT and 15th in SG: APP. That record has led to a pair of top-3 finishes, including at Harbour Town, another Dye design. 

What has plagued Berger this season is a horrific putting record. For the entire season, Berger ranks 67th in SG: Putting, including 70th between 5-10 feet. 

But for the first time since the Masters, Berger gained with the flat stick in the U.S. Open (+1.5). From 5-10 feet, he gained +0.8 strokes per round at Oakmont. 

A few other metrics suggest confidence in Berger based on 2025:

• Proximity: 150-175 yards: 10th
• Proximity: 100-125 yards: 6th
• Par 4 Efficiency: 0-350 yards: 6th
• Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400 yards: 18th
• Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 yards: 27th

Based on those metrics, I like taking a flier on Berger in Connecticut.

Akshay Bhatia (+6600)

If the Travelers continues to prove a wedge and putter contest, it should suit Bhatia. 

Last year, Bhatia recorded a top-5 finish at TPC River Highlands. Earlier this season, he placed third at the Players. 

Over his last 12 rounds on Dye designs, Bhatia ranks ninth in SG: TOT in this field. 

For Bhatia to contend this week, he essentially needs to align a spike approach week with a spike putting effort. 

Bhatia ballooned to +4 strokes on approach four times this season, including +6.5 two weeks ago at Muirfield Village. 

He’s also spiked to +4.5 strokes putting twice in his last nine events. Those two spikes aligned once at TPC Sawgrass. 

For the season, Bhatia ranks 18th in SG: APP and fifth in SG: Putting. He also ranks fourth in birdies or better gained. 

Sample the entirety of 2025, and Bhatia ranks eighth in my model. As a result, this price is worth a shot off a MC at Oakmont.

Travelers Championship Betting Model

• SG: Off the Tee (10%)
• SG: Approach (20%)
• Greens in Regulation Gained (15%)
• Birdies or Better Gained (20%)
• SG: Putting (10%)
• Par 4 Efficiency: 0-350 Yards (5%)
• Par 4 Efficiency: 350-400 Yards (5%)
• Par 4 Efficiency: 400-450 Yards (5%)
• SG: Putting – 5-10 feet (5%)
• SG: Putting – 10-15 feet (5%)