Truist Championship: 3 PGA Expert Picks this Week

One week before the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow, the PGA Tour heads to Philly for the Truist Championship. 

Normally played at Quail Hollow, this week’s event takes place at Philadelphia Cricket Club. It’s the first time the course has hosted an event, where Rory McIlroy (+450) arrives as the favorite. 

Given this week’s event qualifies as a signature event, a number of high-ranking players feature on the odds board. 

Trailing McIlroy on the odds board are Collin Morikawa (+1400), Justin Thomas (+1400), Ludvig Aberg (+1600) and Xander Schauffele (+1600). 

Now, let’s dive into my Truist Championship picks based on golf odds from BetMGM.  

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Truist Championship

Xander Schauffele (+1600)

After a delayed start to his 2025 season, Schauffele has begun to round into form recently. 

The two-time major champion finished 18th or better in each of his last three events, including a T-8th at the Masters. 

Standing out about Schauffele is his approach game. After gaining +11.2 strokes on approach at the Valspar, he gained another +3.4 strokes at Augusta National. 

Schauffele also appears a strong course fit at Philly Cricket Club as his length off the tee likely gives him an advantage at the 7,100-yard setup. 

Over his last 12 rounds, Schauffele ranks sixth in the field in driving distance. He also ranks 22nd in opportunities gained, 13th in bogey avoidance, and 19th in Par 4 Efficiency. 

If Schauffele can increase his production off the tee for the week and retain his strong iron play, I like his profile this week in Philadelphia. 

Patrick Cantlay (+1800)

Cantlay owns sneaky distance off the tee which, like Schauffele, provides an advantage at this shorter setup. 

The known element of Cantlay’s 2025 season is unquestioned strength with his irons. Cantlay gained on approach in seven straight events, ballooning to +5.7 a month ago. 

He also gained off the tee in four straight events as well as five of his previous six starts. 

The big question with Cantlay is whether he can pair those ball-striking metrics with a strong putting week. 

In two of those previous four events, Cantlay gained north of two strokes putting. Earlier this season, he gained +6.1 strokes at the Genesis, his best putting round of the season. 

What gives me the most confidence in Cantlay, though, is his demonstrated ability to avoid mistakes on difficult courses. 

Over his last 12 rounds on difficult setups relative to par, Cantlay ranks fourth in bogey avoidance. The same holds true over his last 100 rounds on qualifying courses. 

Given those trends with his irons and putter, I’ll back Cantlay to contend in Philadelphia. 

Jordan Spieth (+2800)

While it’s slightly concerning taking this short a price on a player who hasn’t won since 2022, the underlying metrics are reassuring. 

The issue with Spieth this season has been that he has struggled to put all elements of his game together at a singular event. 

However, he’s coming off a fourth at the CJ Cup thanks to a Sunday 62. There, he ranked third in SG: T2G and fifth in SG: APP. 

Over his last five events, Spieth gained at least six strokes on approach twice. He simultaneously gained at least five strokes putting in two of his last four. 

The issue? He hasn’t produced a week where he ballooned on both approach and on the greens.

However, Spieth sits 11th in my 12-round model with a number of strong stats. Of the eight measured stats, he ranks 25th or better in six and 16th or better in five. 

Most notably of those stats: Spieth ranks 10th in bogey avoidance and sixth in SG: Putting. As a result, I like his profile this week.