U.S. Women’s Open Picks: Favorites Plus Longshots

If there’s a women’s major championship that’s ripe for picking some players with longer odds, it’s the U.S. Women’s Open.

Just check out how the game’s best players have fared at this one.

Nelly Korda is No. 1 in the Rolex Rankings, but she’s played this event 10 times and has more missed cuts (3) than top-10s (2). Jeeno Thitikul is No. 2, and while her experience is more limited, she just posted her first top-10 last year. Next on the list is Lydia Ko, who’s only matched Korda’s number of top-10s despite three more starts. Ruoning Yin doesn’t have a top-10 in three starts. Haeran Ryu has just one in five.

What do they all have in common? The game’s five highest-ranked players at the current moment have combined for exactly zero U.S. Women’s Open wins in a collective 34 total appearances.

Instead, recent winners include Yuka Saso (twice), Allisen Corpuz, Minjee Lee and A Lim Kim – all in the range of good to very good players, though (other than Lee) hardly the names we’d expect in the winner’s circle at a tournament of this magnitude.

All of which means starting from the lower end of the top tier and working our way down should make some sense at brawny Erin Hills, which will measure 6,829 yards this week.

U.S. Women’s Open Picks: Favorites Plus Longshots

Hyo Joo Kim (+2200)

With victories already this year on both the LPGA and LET, the 29-year-old is playing some of the best golf of her life, while owning some nice recent history at the biggest events. She was T-2 at the year’s first major, the Chevron Championship, just last month and has top-20 results in 21 of her last 25 major starts. She hasn’t won one of ‘em since her major debut at the 2014 Evian Championship, but should have as much win equity as just about anyone with shorter odds this week.

Yealimi Noh (+3300)

Ranked fifth in SG: Total this season – not too far behind leaders Thitikul and Korda – the 23-year-old Californian is enjoying a breakthrough campaign which already includes her first LPGA win and three other top-10s. The jury is still out as to whether she can bring her best stuff to a major, as she owns just two top-10s against 10 missed cuts in 22 career starts, but for a player who turned pro at such a young age, there’s still plenty of time to prove that was just part of the learning curve, starting with this week.

Ariya Jutanugarn (+4000)

Kim isn’t the only one looking to avenge that five-player playoff at the Chevron which was won by Mao Saigo. Jutanugarn let a great chance to win a third career major slip through her hands that week, however with three consecutive top-six finishes coming into this week, she’s poised to challenge for a second U.S. Women’s Open title. Ranked 14th in SG: Approach this season, her ball-striking will be paramount to another contention here. 

A Lim Kim (+5000)

Quite frankly, I was surprised when I scrolled from the top of the odds board and didn’t see Kim’s name amongst the top-10 – or even top-20. She’s tied for the 25th-shortest odds, which should be considered massive value. She was a shocking winner when she won her major debut at this tournament in 2020, but she’s blossomed into a player with a win and three other top-10s this year, ranking 10th in SG: Total and, as an added bonus, 10th in driving distance.

Linn Grant (+6000)

The first of two Swedish players on this list, Grant started the season with a bang, finishing solo third in the opener, only to post just a single top-40 finish in her next seven starts, the last four of which were missed cuts. That’s the bad news. The good news is she’s since bounced back from those MCs with a share of fourth place in her most recent start, so perhaps she’s found something. She also seems to rise to the occasion, with finishes of 26th or better in 10 of her last 13 majors.

Ingrid Lindblad (+9000)

A decorated amateur and collegiate player at LSU, the Swede has already notched her first LPGA victory this season and looks like she’s on the fast to superstardom. The results have been a mixed bag, but her ceiling is undeniable. Consider me a buyer as long as she remains at this price.

Patty Tavatanakit (+9000)

A surprise major champion when she won the Chevron in 2021, Tavatanakit has since finished seventh or better in all five majors. That said, she’s proven to be an all-or-nothing type of option, but at this inflated price, I don’t mind taking a chance in the outright market.

Nanna Koerstz Madsen (+15000)

One of the longest hitters on the LPGA, she’s currently ranked 11th in driving distance, which should be a discernible advantage at Erin Hills. But that’s not the only thing she has going for her. Madsen is also third in greens in regulation and 21st in putting average, which represents a solid all-around skill-set. The negatives are obvious, though, as well. She’s won just once in eight seasons and her four top-10s in 38 major starts have been offset by a troubling 22 missed cuts.

Gabriela Ruffels (+25000)

The Aussie has yet to live up to her promise after a fine rookie season last year, but she was in contention this past weekend through 54 holes at Mayakoba before finishing T-21. This is simply a shot in the dark on a talented player at a big price.

Madelene Sagstrom (+25000)

Ditto this play, as it’s been a down year for Sagstrom, save for her second career LPGA win at the Match Play in Las Vegas. Again, at these odds, I don’t mind a sprinkle.