Valspar Championship 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

The Florida Swing on the PGA Tour will wrap up this week with the Valspar Championship from the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort just outside of Tampa.

It isn’t a PGA Tour signature event, but the field is pretty strong, with some big names teeing it up. 

The Copperhead Course is similar to the other courses the past few weeks. It is a course that demands shot-shaping and positioning off the tee. Over the years, it has favored the players who do well with ball striking, scrambling and putting on Bermuda greens.

It is also a difficult course to score on, as only twice since 2013 has the winning score been better than 10-under.

The par-71 course has five par-3s and four par-5s.

This will be a week to rely on course history. Paul Casey won the event in 2018 and 2019, and then Sam Burns won in 2021 and 2022.

After finishing T-2 at the Players Championship, Xander Schauffele (+750) has the best odds to win this week. He’s teed it up here once before, finishing T-12 in 2022.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

*All odds as of March 19.

Valspar Championship Prediction

Schauffele is expected to win the Valspar Championship with a 11.76% implied probability, according to betting markets. Burns is next at 8.33%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

Valspar Championship Best Bets

Xander Schauffele +750 Odds to Win

Schauffele was in the lead for much of Sunday at the Players Championship before Scottie Scheffler overtook him for a one-shot win. He obviously enters in great form, and as one of the best shot-makers on the PGA Tour, the Copperhead Course is a good fit.

Sam Burns +1100 Odds to Win

Burns has dominated this event. In five appearances, he has four top 12 finishes, including three top 6s and two wins. He putts his best on Bermuda greens. Five of his 15 best career-putting weeks have come at this event.

Valspar Championship Sleeper Picks

Doug Ghim +4500 Odds to Win

Ghim had a great week at the Players Championship last week, finishing T-16, and he also ranks high in several key metrics related to the Copperhead Course. Last week wasn’t his only strong finish of late, either. He’s finished T-16 or better in five straight starts.

Joel Dahmen +10000 Odds to Win

Dahmen, one of the stars of Full Swing, has struggled for much of the last year, but finished T-11 at the Players Championship. He also ranks high in the metrics needed to play well here in the past. Confidence is a big thing for Dahmen and he enters with plenty of it.

Valspar Championship Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Justin Thomas Outright Win +1400
• Doug Ghim Outright Win +4000
• Maverick McNealy Outright Win +5000
• Joel Dahmen Outright Win +10000
• Justin Thomas Top-20 Finish -125
• Doug Ghim Top-20 Finish +188

This week, I relied primarily on course history as well as my Fantasy National model. I also kept my card smaller than usual as this is a hard week to cap.

I like Thomas to bounce back after a missed cut at the Players Championship and I’m banking on Ghim to continue his recent stretch of strong play.

McNealy and Dahmen are fliers but enter with a lot of confidence following strong showings a week ago.

Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Sam Burns
3. Doug Ghim
4. Justin Thomas
5. Andrew Novak
6. Tony Finau
7. Beau Hossler
8. Keith Mitchell
9. Joel Dahmen
10. Bud Cauley