Wells Fargo Championship 2023: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

It’s another designated event week on the PGA Tour with the Wells Fargo Championship (May 4-7) from Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. 

Since it’s a designated event, it has a $20 million purse and a strong field. There are 21 of the top 30 players in the Official World Golf Rankings, although world Nos. 1 and 2 — Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler — are skipping the event.

The tournament returns to Quail Hollow after being played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm since the club hosted the Presidents Cup in the fall.

Max Homa won the 2022 edition, but it’s also worth noting he won the event at Quail Hollow in 2019.

Over the years, Quail Hollow has turned into one of the most recognizable courses on the East Coast and become a major championship venue, hosting the 2017 PGA Championship and 2022 Presidents Cup.

At 7,538 yards, it’s relatively long in length and rewards the longer hitters, but it isn’t all about distance. It rewards players who are best from tee to green and can navigate the Bermuda greens.

I will be favoring longer hitters, the best ball strikers, and players who avoid bogeys best. Course history is also something to strongly consider.

The Wells Fargo Championship has a history of going down to the wire, with six tournaments being decided in a playoff since the inaugural 2003 event. Rory McIlroy, who has the best odds to win at +750, is an outlier as he’s won the event three times and by four-plus strokes twice.

Aside from McIlroy finishing at 21-under in 2015, no winning score has been better than 15-under in the last 12 years.

Below are some players to target when golf betting, followed by my betting card for the week.

*Odds as of May 2.

Wells Fargo Championship Predictions 

Rory McIlroy is predicted to win the Wells Fargo Championship with an 11.76 % implied probability — i.e., the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds — according to betting markets.

Patrick Cantlay has the next best odds to win with a 7.69% implied probability.  He is followed by Xander Schauffele at 6.67%.

Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets

Patrick Cantlay +1200 Odds to Win

Cantlay is playing some great golf at the moment, with his worst finish being a T-19 in his last seven events. That stretch also includes four top-5 finishes. The 31-year-old doesn’t have a win this season and is clearly due.

He doesn’t have the greatest course history but did go 3-1-0 at the Presidents Cup last fall.

Max Homa +2500 Odds to Win

Homa will be a popular play this week, given he’s a two-time winner at the event and went 4-0-0 at the Presidents Cup. Not many players in the field feel more comfortable at Quail Hollow than Homa.

The one thing working against him is his recent form. He’s missed two straight cuts, and that comes following a T-43 at the Masters.

Wells Fargo Championship Sleepers

Keith Mitchell +6600 Odds to Win

Mitchell has four top-10 finishes to go along with six top-25s this season. The 31-year-old is turning into one of the more consistent performers on the PGA Tour. With only one win to his name, he’s prime to break out and go on a run.

Even before this season, Quail Hollow has been a place Mitchell has performed at. He finished T-8 and T-3 in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

Emiliano Grillo +9000 Odds to Win

Grillo enters the event hot, with two straight top-10 finishes. Overall this season, the 30-year-old has four top-10 finishes, proving he can compete on the PGA Tour.

Specific to Quail Hollow, he finished T-9 in 2018 and has shown he can succeed here. Given his recent form and course history, this feels like a solid number.

Wells Fargo Championship Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Cameron Young Outright Win +2000
• Sungjae Im Outright Win +2500
• Sahith Theegala Outright Win +4000
• Keith Mitchell Outright Win +6600
• Viktor Hovland Top-5 Finish +400
• Justin Thomas Top-20 Finish +100
• Emiliano Grillo Top-20 Finish +300

I avoided the big favorites this week as the value doesn’t seem to be there, given how deep the field is. Although it was unintentional, for outrights this week, I’m leaning on players who haven’t won much, if at all, in their careers and are ready for a big-time win.

My favorite play is Thomas to finish in the top 20 at plus money. 

Sure, he hasn’t played up to his standard this year, but it’s not like he’s been missing tons of cuts. And over the years, Thomas has shown entering an event with a chip on his shoulder isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

I did rely on my Fantasy National model, but not as much as in past weeks. Here is the top 10 of my model for the week:

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Tony Finau
3. Jason Day
4. Max Homa
5. Justin Thomas
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Wyndham Clark
8. Xander Schauffele
9. Sungjae Im
10. Viktor Hovland