What is J.J. Spaun’s Future Ceiling Following U.S. Open Win?

OAKMONT, Pa. — The following is a true story which might not rank in Oakmont lore amongst Johnny Miller’s final-round 63, but served prescient nonetheless.

On Wednesday, prior to the opening round of the 125th U.S. Open Championship, an ESPN camera crew wanted to show the world just how impossible it is to putt this course’s severe, sloping, slippery greens and asked J.J. Spaun to demonstrate.

Only one problem: He couldn’t miss.

Perhaps the story of the week was written before it ever began, as the tournament concluded the very same way, with Spaun rolling in a 65-foot birdie putt for his first major victory.

In the moment, this is an utterly deserving triumph for a player who represents everything the national championship is about. He grew up playing a par-3 municipal course, walked on to his college team, and plied his craft on the mini-tours for years before ever reaching the most elite level.

Years from now, of course, there might be a chance that those who didn’t witness these heroics simply click on golf’s Wikipedia page for 2025 and recite the first three major winners’ names thusly: “Rory McIlroy! Scottie Scheffler! J.J. Spaun??”

There’s little doubt Spaun won’t instantly turn into a Rory- or Scottie-level single-named superstar, but it’s similarly difficult to envision him becoming the next Shaun Micheel or Ben Curtis, who were one-hit wonders of a previous generation.

When assessing Spaun’s ceiling, we can certainly examine this victory — plus his three other top-three results this season, including a playoff loss at The Players Championship — and presume a couple of things: He likes grinding it out in tough conditions, and he can get nuclear-hot when the flatstick is cooperating.

There’s nothing more shortsighted, though, than the recency bias of a Monday morning quarterback with rose-colored glasses. It happens all the time: A player wins a big-time event, and the instant analysis from the pundits suggests, “If he can play like this every week…”

We shouldn’t expect that from Spaun. Hell, Spaun doesn’t expect that from Spaun.

He’s a 34-year-old two-time winner on the PGA Tour who never even had a top-20 in a major until this week. In fact, less than a year ago, he was considering that his career might be cut short due to a lack of success.

“Last year in June, I was looking like I was going to lose my job,” he said Sunday evening, the gleaming U.S. Open trophy resting in front of him. “That was when I had that moment where, if this is how I go out, I might as well go down swinging.”

Spoiler alert: He didn’t go down. Or out.

That said, there’s reason to believe this win could be a stepping stone to future prosperity.

Spaun has, by his own admission, always been a bit anxious, bordering on nervous, especially when in contention. I interviewed him after each of the first three rounds at Oakmont, and every time he conceded some degree of these internal emotions. 

If this victory does anything for Spaun, it should give him the confidence to know that his best is good enough to beat all of the world’s greatest players, even on one of the toughest courses around. There’s no way to measure that inner faith in oneself, no tangible evaluation, but it’s hard to argue that it won’t be a massive benefit moving forward.

He will now be automatically qualified for every major for the next half-decade and this year’s Tour Championship, and of course, the Ryder Cup, where that newfound confidence could prosper. If nothing else, he’ll at least have opportunities to play his best golf and again hit that ceiling, which is more than he had a year ago.

It was a week that began with Spaun holing putts he wasn’t supposed to make and ended with him holing a putt that perhaps nobody else would’ve made. And it was a performance that might not lead to Spaun being a superstar, but could lead to more big-time success in the not-too-distant future.