Why Major Championship Golf Betting Is Getting Harder and Harder

Not long after Justin Rose clinched a share of runner-up honors at Royal Troon in the 152nd edition of The Open Championship, I hypothesized on social media that such a result must be demoralizing for a player who’s been seeking a second career major title for more than a decade.

After all, he entered the final round just one stroke off the lead, played a near-flawless round of golf that resulted in the second-best score of the entire day, and still didn’t have a chance to win at the end, as Xander Schauffele shifted into a gear that few own, cruising to the victory. 

“Gutted when I walked off the course and it hit me hard, because I was so strong out there today,” Rose said after posting 67 on Sunday. “I won second place, I won points, I won prizes, FedEx Cup points, all that stuff. … Then I walk ten steps later, and I’m choking back tears. So that’s the shift.”

It can be argued – as many did, trust me – that acquitting himself so well in this spotlight should hardly be demoralizing for Rose. Such feelings, it might be said, are reserved for situations like that of Rory McIlroy at last month’s U.S. Open, when he missed two short putts on the last three holes to lose by a single stroke.

That isn’t untrue, but discouragement can take all forms. Playing your best golf when in contention and still failing to win can be as hurtful as choking it away in the moment.

The bigger takeaway here is that every elite-level player except for three undoubtedly feels some level of disappointment at his major championship performance this year, with Schauffele’s two victories complemented by wins from Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau.

Those are arguably the world’s three best players right now, though “right now” in professional golf analysis is a fickle concept, only sufficient until the next time they tee it up.

From a golf betting perspective, the glaring obviousness is that the champions of all four majors were near the top of each odds board, winning from 20/1 or shorter every time. Not only wasn’t there a Ben Curtis or Todd Hamilton in the mix, there wasn’t even a Wyndham Clark or Brian Harman. 

One of my favorite 19th hole exercises is to debate how many major titles the world’s best players will win during their careers. Scottie Scheffler? “He’s the game’s best player, he’s only 28 and he already has two; let’s give him a half-dozen more to make it eight.” Xander Schauffele? “Well, those first two came pretty quickly, so the 30-year-old should have four more.” DeChambeau? McIlroy? Brooks Koepka? Jon Rahm? “They’ll each win one or two more, at the very least.”

Add ‘em up and we’ve already accounted for about four years’ worth of victories – and that’s excluding plenty of big-name players who are just as capable, while not even scratching the surface on the likes of young Ludvig Aberg, a potentially generational talent who’s just getting started at this level.

The point is, winning majors has always been really difficult, but if this year is evidence, that goal might be getting even tougher, with only the best of the best able to claim these victories. 

For a guy like McIlroy, who’s now gone a full decade with the odometer stuck on four, or Rose, who at 44 might’ve just enjoyed his last great chance at a second one, the very nature of this beast can lead to demoralizing thoughts.

If you want to win a major in this era, you’ve got to play your very best golf – and in some cases, your very best golf still won’t be good enough.