WM Phoenix Open 2024: Predictions, Best Bets, Sleepers

One of the most exciting weeks on the PGA Tour is here with the WM Phoenix Open from TPC Scottsdale.

Headlined by the rowdy par-3 16th hole, close to 200,000 fans will be in attendance over the course of the week, making for a tremendous atmosphere unlike any other tournament.

Although it is not a PGA Tour signature event, several big names are in the field, headlined by Scottie Scheffler, who is seeking his third straight win at this event. 

He enters the week +500 to win, by far the best in the field.

When it comes to TPC Scottsdale, the scores have been pretty consistent from year to year. Over the last seven years, the winning score has been between 16 and 19-under, so players will need to make plenty of birdies.

It has a number of risk-reward holes, especially on the back nine, which leads to exciting finishes virtually every year.

It also is a course that demands all aspects of a player’s game be sharp. Similar to a major, players cannot rely on just one thing to play well here. 

I will be looking at players who grade out well with the following metrics: birdie or better gained, bogey avoidance, scrambling gained and proximity 100-200 yards. The greens are relatively flat and not complex, so putting won’t play as much of a factor as at other courses.

Below are some players to target, followed by my PGA Tour betting card for the week:

WM Phoenix Open Prediction

Scheffler is expected to win the WM Phoenix Open with a 16.67% implied probability, according to betting markets. Justin Thomas is next at 9.09%.

Implied probability is the overall chance of a potential outcome in relation to the odds.

WM Phoenix Open Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler +500 Odds to Win

Winning two straight years here, including one year in a designated event, there’s no questioning why he’s the favorite this week. Scheffler has two top 10 finishes so far this year, including a T-6 at last week’s shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Justin Thomas +1000 Odds to Win

After missing the FedEx Cup Playoffs a year ago, it seems Thomas has turned things around. Following a solid fall, he has two top six finishes in his two events in 2024. He’s also had some success at TPC Scottsdale, finishing inside the top 20 for six straight years, including three top 5s.

WM Phoenix Open Sleeper Picks

Adam Hadwin +5000 Odds to Win

Hadwin is off to a solid 2024 season, including a T-6 at The American Express. He has a home in the Scottsdale area, and has a great record at the event. He’s never missed a cut in eight tries here, with his best finish being a T-10 a year ago.

Brian Harman +6600 Odds to Win

Sure, Harman isn’t playing at the level when he won the Open Championship last summer, but he’s still the No. 9-ranked player in the world and finished T-5 at The Sentry last month. For him to be +6600 is wild, especially since he’s never missed a cut here in seven tries, including a T-14 in 2022.

WM Phoenix Open Betting Card & Other Predictions

• Justin Thomas Outright Win +1000
• Sungjae Im Outright Win +2800
• Brian Harman Outright Win +6600
• Max Homa Top-10 Finish +175
• Adam Hadwin Top-10 Finish +400
• Sahith Theegala Top-20 Finish +165

This week, I relied on course history as well as my Fantasy National model.

Thomas is going to be a popular pick, but with Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland withdrawing early in the week, besides Scheffler, it can be argued Thomas is the most talented player in the field. Im is due for a win and has played well here recently, while Harman’s number is too good to pass up.

When it came to props, I went with players who have played well at TPC Scottsdale in the past.

Here is the top 10 of my Fantasy National model:

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Eric Cole
3. Max Homa
4. Byeong Hun An
5. Chesson Hadley
6. Akshay Bhatia
7. Ryan Moore
8. Lucas Glover
9. Erik van Rooyen
10. J.T. Poston