World Wide Technology Championship Predictions: Conservative/Aggressive Plays for Every Type of Bettor

I’m going to begin this week’s preview of the World Wide Technology Championship by comparing it to the U.S. Open. Even as I type it out, this idea looks ridiculous, but it should (hopefully) make some sense.

As I’ve written many times in advance of the year’s third major, that one used to be the domain of the little guys. From Lee Janzen to Corey Pavin to Jim Furyk, those who favored precision over power, who aimed for the middle of the greens instead of firing at flagsticks, often held the upper hand at a tournament that favored steady par streams over roller-coaster variance.

Of course, that’s changed drastically during the past decade. Winners have included Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Jon Rahm and Wyndham Clark – and the one thing they all have in common is an ability to hit the ball as far as just about anyone in the world of professional golf.

So, what changed? It’s not too difficult to understand that increasingly narrowed fairways and thicker rough led to this inverse reaction. Essentially, if everybody is going to miss the short stuff – even the accurate guys – then the big boys will have an advantage gouging it out of the nether regions.

Believe it or not, all of this leads us back to the full mouthful that is this week’s World Wide Technology Championship.

Played at Tiger Woods-designed El Cardonal in Los Cabos, Mexico, for the first time last year, this was about the least U.S. Open-ish tournament of the year.

It’s not just Erik van Rooyen’s 27-under winning score that suggests this, though. According to Data Golf, this 7,452-yard host yielded a driving accuracy of 90.5% last year, which is 31.8% higher than the average PGA Tour course. This was led by Adam Long, who didn’t miss a single one all week.

All of which should have us asking ourselves this question: Who holds the advantage when there’s no inherent leverage for those who traditionally hit the most fairways?

It’s a query which remains at least a little bit rhetorical, as there was no Shotlink data from last year’s initial tourney on this course. What we can surmise, however, is that driving statistics are neutralized here, with the advantage turning to ball-strikers perhaps more than any event on the annual schedule.

If that’s a tough theory to resolve, think of it this way: On the first-ever Tiger design to host a PGA Tour event, we shouldn’t be surprised that it might’ve been a perfect fit for Tiger’s own personal skillset.

In case you hadn’t noticed over the past quarter-century or so, Woods was never the most accurate driver of the golf ball. Of course, he overcame that deficiency by being the greatest ball-striker of all time. On a venue where nearly every player gets to hit from the fairway nearly every time, the man himself would’ve held a considerable advantage over the field in his prime years.

Consider this a (perhaps much too) long-winded way of explaining that we should favor neither the most powerful players on this average-length track at altitude, nor the most precise, but instead those who can most often convert second shots from the short grass into makeable birdie opportunities.

This week’s golf odds board starts with Max Greyserman (+1400) and his three runner-up finishes in five starts as the favorite, followed by Cameron Young (+2000) still in search of his first PGA Tour victory, then a bevy of others, continuing a trend during these fall events, which has often been no real short numbers at the top, but plenty of clustering just below it.

Let’s get to the selections, with a conservative and an aggressive play for each wagering possibility.

World Wide Technology Championship Outright Picks

Conservative: Lucas Glover (+2500)

Of the top 20 in the PGA Tour’s Strokes Gained: Approach statistic this season, eight are competing this week – and I’ll highlight two of them for my favorite outright plays. There’s plenty to like about Glover, who ranks fifth in that aforementioned category and led it at the Black Desert Championship while previously seventh at the Sanderson Farms Championship, those two performances each leading to third-place finishes. Glover is running hot right now, but there are other reasons to like him, too. 

As a six-time champion, he owns more experience while playing in contention than just about anyone else in this youthful field, which should be a massive advantage. He’s also in need of a big result. Currently 63rd on the FedEx Cup points list, there’s some work to be done if he wants to qualify for signature events and next year’s Masters before the calendar turns over. Playing with pressure, though, should be nothing new to the veteran.

Just last year, he won the final regular season event at the Wyndham Championship to get into the playoffs, then peeled off another win at the FedEx St. Jude Championship for good measure. There aren’t too many proven winners in this field, so I’ll take my chances on a guy who understands what it takes to triumph – and just happens to be one of the better ball-strikers around.

Aggressive: Henrik Norlander (+8000)

As mentioned above, there’s a lot of clustering on the board this week. If that term is unfamiliar, allow me to explain: Greyserman is the favorite at 14/1, which is 2-3 times the number of the Scottie Scheffler/Xander Schauffele types of faves we’ve seen throughout this year. That doesn’t mean there are bargains everywhere, though. There are 13 players in this field who opened at shorter than 30/1 and 23 who are shorter than 50/1. 

Point is, it’s difficult to scan too far down this board in search of longshots who can actually cash an outright ticket. Norlander, however, easily ranks as one of those chosen few. He’s gained strokes with his irons in seven of his last nine starts, a period which not coincidentally includes four top-12 results. 

While the Swede isn’t among the best putters, he does tend to play some of his best golf at tournaments with an abundance of birdies, as his three career runner-up finishes on the PGA Tour have each come when the winning score was in the mid-teens in relation to par. There’s not much to like at this price and longer, but I love the idea of taking a chance on Norlander with some meaty odds this week. 

World Wide Technology Championship Top-5 Picks

Conservative: Keith Mitchell (+650)

As perhaps the world’s leading owner of unsuccessful Mitchell outright tickets over the past few years, I’ll admit there’s some reverse psychology in “only” choosing him for a top-five this week. I’ll also admit that he wasn’t on my original short list, just because his usual off-the-tee prowess should be negated on a course where everyone should be rendered a great driver of the ball. 

The fact of the matter, though, is that his rank of sixth off the tee is only trailed slightly by a rank of 11th with his irons. I’ve long been a believer that Mitchell owns the talent to be a top-20 player in the world, and won’t be surprised if that finally comes to fruition next year. It’s not hard to understand how it can happen, either. In his last 10 starts, he’s gained strokes on the greens just three times, but those performances culminated in a trio of top-12 results. He doesn’t need to be the best putter out there in order to contend; he just needs to be better than he usually is.

Aggressive: Rico Hoey (+650)

At this midway point of 2024, Hoey owned exactly one top-30 finish and had missed the cut in nine of 14 starts, including five straight entering July. That’s when something clicked for the rookie, who finished top-10 in three of his next four and only has three results outside that top-30 barrier in his last 11 starts.

Without any evidentiary proof, it simply feels like momentum plays a bigger role in leaderboard configurations than during the regular season, and Hoey is certainly trending in the right direction these days. 

World Wide Technology Championship Top-10 Picks

Conservative: J.J. Spaun (+250)

I spoke with Spaun on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show last week, and he maintained during the interview that he’s been very happy with his recent ball-striking. And why shouldn’t he be? He’s now gained strokes on approach shots in three straight starts, nine of his last 10 and 15 of his last 17. That includes cashing top-10 tickets in four events since the end of June, all of which makes him a fairly low-risk play at well into plus-money for this one.

Aggressive: Jacob Bridgeman (+400)

I’ve written about Bridgeman in a handful of recent previews, and I don’t see any reason to stop now. Unlike most of the players mentioned in this week’s piece, the rookie does most of his damage not with his ball-striking but around and on the greens. While I do believe that iron play will largely separate the contenders from the pretenders this week, at some point, players will need to roll in a bucketful of putts if they want to keep pace at this birdie-fest. I don’t mind a card full of iron players being infiltrated by a couple of great putters. 

World Wide Technology Championship Top-20 Picks

Conservative: Austin Eckroat (+175)

This is what I like to call my NFL Draft play. Instead of picking based on need, I’m just going with the best player available. Eckroat has only played once since the end of the regular season – a T-46 at the Shriners Children’s Open – but he’s easily one of the best talents in this field, especially from those outside the 40/1 outright range. (He opened at 45/1.) 

If a course without much history and greater variance during the fall and a bankroll destined more for football plays than golf has you staying cautious, then plays like this at plus-money should make the most sense this week.

Aggressive: Joe Highsmith (+200)

That’s right – yet another rookie sneaking his way into this week’s preview, as Highsmith has similarly figured things out recently and is making a late run toward keeping his card, currently at 126th on the points list. With three top-20s in his last four starts, the big-hitting lefty should continue to show his big-time potential, whether he retains those playing privileges in the big leagues or not.

World Wide Technology Championship First-Round Leader Picks

Conservative: Tom Hoge (+5000)

After the lengthy introduction above about chasing ball-strikers, you might be surprised that I haven’t listed Hoge’s name to this point, considering he’s the statistically best ball-striker in this field. While he admitted on SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio on Monday that he hasn’t played his best golf in his last couple of starts, I’m banking on that swing returning for one day, at least, and we know he can go low in a hurry. From last year’s third-round 62 at The Players to this year’s final-round 62 at the Travelers Championship, his iron play can shoot him up the leaderboard if the putter is also cooperating.

Aggressive: Alejandro Tosti (+6600)

At this stage in his PGA Tour career, the wildly talented Tosti remains more of a wildcard than a safe play. He’s about as aggressive as they come in both his sightlines off the tee and penchant for going at flagsticks. That can get him in trouble at times, but on a course with some serious risk-reward holes, I like the idea of taking a shot on an aggressive player for a single-round investment.